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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



381 
AXPZ20 KNHC 032046
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient will
continue supporting gale-force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Sun night. Seas will build to 12 ft tonight 
through Sun. Winds and seas are expected to gradually diminish by 
early Mon. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 09N79W to 09N119W. Surface
trough extends from 12N122W to 08N122W. The ITCZ continues from 
08N124W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 16N between 104W and 116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for the gale-force gap wind
event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore forecast waters of
Baja California as a 1020 mb high pressure remains located near 
27N120W. NW swell continues to move across the far NW Baja 
California offshore waters, bringing 8-9 ft seas N of 26N and W 
of 118W. Seas are 4-7 ft within NW swell elsewhere across the 
Baja California offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds 
prevail in the central Gulf of California with light winds over 
the rest of the Gulf with 2-3 ft seas. Elsewhere across the 
remaining Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec 
region, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in 
mixed swell. 

For the forecast, gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
will prevail through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to 12
ft tonight into Sun. Winds and seas will improve over the region
on Mon. An approaching front will stay west of the area through
the day before weakening. The swell accompanying the front will 
continue to move over the Baja California Norte waters this
evening and subside tonight. Another weak cold front is expected
to approach the Baja California Norte waters on Sun and will 
dissipate by Mon. This front will bring another round of NW swell
across the Baja Norte waters Sun night and will quickly subside 
on Mon. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of California 
through midweek as high pressure builds across the Baja region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E winds prevail across the Papagayo region 
and downwind to near 88W. Peak seas are estimated at 7 ft. Light
to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon 
trough along 08N, with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle S to SW 
winds and 3-4 ft seas are seen to the S of the trough. Light to 
gentle S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore waters to 
the Galapagos Islands with seas 3-4 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo 
region will pulse across the area through midweek. Elsewhere, 
little change in the marine conditions is forecast. Mainly gentle
to moderate winds will prevail across the offshore waters of 
Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Seas will subside 
modestly during the weekend, except in the Papagayo region. NW 
swell generated from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will move 
across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through 
Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A frontal boundary stretches from 30N127W to 25N136W. Latest 
ASCAT pass depicts fresh winds with seas to 13 ft near and north
of the front. The front will dissipate tonight into Sun. Its 
associated swell will slowly subside through the weekend and into
early next week. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

A 1020 mb high pressure is centered across the NE forecast 
waters near 27N120W, and extends a ridge south and southeastward 
that covers the waters N of 24N between 110W and 120W. This 
system is producing a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across 
the area. An area of fresh to strong winds has developed in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough from 09N to 14N between 105W and 
112W. Seas to 8 ft are expected within this area. A surface 
trough is embedded in the monsoon trough along 122W. Moderate 
winds prevail in the vicinity of the trough with seas ranging 
between 6-7 ft. Elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted. Moderate SE to S 
winds winds and seas of 6-7 ft are seen S of the monsoon to the 
equator and W of 95W.

For the forecast, a reinforcing cold front will enter the NW waters
on Sun and weaken by Mon night. High pressure will build across 
the area through next week, which will strengthen winds to fresh 
to strong across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W by 
Tue through the week. 

$$
ERA


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Page last modified: Saturday, 03-Dec-2022 20:47:06 UTC