000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270846
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon May 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 12N110W to 1011 mb low
pressure near 10N116W to 07N125W. The ITCZ continues from 
07N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from
02N to 07N east of 82W, from 07N to 09N between 90W and 95W, and
from 10N to 12N between 115W and 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW winds persist off Baja California Norte
between high pressure west of the region and lower pressure over
central Mexico. A recent altimeter satellite pass indicated 4 to
6 ft combined seas off Baja California. Light to gentle breezes
persist elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft combined seas.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of 
the region and lower pressure over central Mexico will continue 
to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas off 
Baja California mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro into mid- week. 
Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail 
across open waters elsewhere. Hazy conditions may persist off 
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to 
agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Looking ahead, expect
building seas with the arrival long period NW swell beyond 90 nm
off Baja California from late Wed through Fri, with combined seas
reaching 8 to 9 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate persist across the region. Combined seas are 
3 to 5 ft in SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue east of 82W off Panama and Colombia. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough along roughly 10N while light to gentle 
winds are expected north of it through Fri. Combined seas will 
remain in the 3 to 5 ft range most of the work-week as additional
pulses of SW swell propagate across the forecast region. Light haze from smoke
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities
over portions of the Central America offshore waters through the
next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather regime across
most of the waters north of 10N and west of 110W. Under the 
influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow is noted, except W of the Baja California Peninsula where 
moderate to fresh winds are blowing. Combined seas of 5 to 7 ft 
dominate most of the forecast area based on altimeter data.

1011 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 10N116W 
generating some convective activity. Fresh to strong southerly 
winds are S of the monsoon trough/low, mainly between 115W and 
120W. Elsewhere S of the monsoon trough, mainly gentle to 
moderate southerly winds are noted. 

For the forecast, ridging will remain in place north of 10N and
west of 110W through the next several days. By mid-week, this 
system will strengthen some north of the area, bringing moderate
to fresh winds across the trade wind zone, with seas building to
8 ft mainly west of 130W. 

$$
Christensen