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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192127
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1756 UTC Mon Feb 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Strong to minimal gale force 
SW-W winds, with building seas to 8 ft will develop across the 
waters from 29N to 30.5N this evening ahead of a cold front that 
will pass E across the far northern gulf waters. Strong northerly
winds and seas to 8 ft are expected NW of the front through 
tonight. The front will move E of the area on Tue, with marine 
conditions quickly improving thereafter.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends SW from 06N77W to 07N90W to 03N100W. 
The ITCZ continues from 03N100W to 06N120W to 07N130W to 
07N140W. No significant convection is noted.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

As of 1800 UTC, a cold front is moving across the northern Gulf 
of California and central Baja California. Please, see Special
Features section for more details. Strengthening high pressure 
in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong NW winds
spreading SE across the waters W of the Baja Norte through 
tonight, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 8 to 12 f by
tonight. This swell event will continue to spread across the 
offshore waters W of Baja through Wed with seas of 8-10 ft. Seas
of 8 ft will reach the Revillagigedo Islands by Wed night. Then, 
seas gradually subsiding to less than 8 ft on Thu.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly light and variable winds are expected
over the next couple of days, with seas generally under 4 ft.
Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt Thu night into
Fri, with seas building to 8 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through 
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 90W/91W through 
the forecast period, with seas building to 9 ft during the
overnight and early morning hours.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal N winds are 
expected across the western Gulf of Panama through Tue night, 
with these conditions extending as far S as 05N80W.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure of 1040 mb located well N of the area
near 42N141W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system will move south in 
about 24 hours, reaching a position near 37N140W while slightly 
weakening. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will result in fresh
to strong trade winds across the tropical waters W of 125W. This
conditions will persist the reamainder of the work week as the
high pressure will be reinforcing by a stronger one.

Long period NW swell dominates roughly the waters N of 12N W of 
110W, while cross equatorial SW swell is affecting the remainder
of the forecast area, reaching the coast of Mexico S of Cabo
Corrientes, and the coast of Central America. Seas of 8 ft o
greater can be found N of 10N W of 115W by Tue night. 

During March and April of each year, a doble ITCZ is usually
present in the Southern Hemisphere on the eastern Pacific basin.
The GFS model is already suggesting the presence of a trough and
associated convective activity S of the Equator.  

$$
GR

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Page last modified: Monday, 19-Feb-2018 21:28:04 UTC