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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



104 
AXPZ20 KNHC 272101
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Jun 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Celia is centered near 20.9N 118.0W at 27/2100
UTC moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 19N to 23N between 114W and 119W. Celia 
is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is 
expected to continue over the next few days. Gradual weakening is
forecast, and Celia is expected to become a post- tropical 
cyclone within the next couple of days. Swells will affect 
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, the southern Baja 
California peninsula, and the coast of west-central Mexico during
the next couple of days. These conditions could cause life- 
threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from 
your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC Public 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and 
Forecast/ Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 100W north of 04N to Guerrero, moving 
west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 11N to 16N between 97W and 103W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near the Papagayo region at
10N85W to 09N108W to 08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N 
to 11N between 78W and 118W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are across the remainder of
the waters outside of Celia. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the 
waters outside of Celia, except 2 to 4 ft in the central and 
northern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, seas of 8 ft or greater west of Los Cabos
will subside tonight. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight into the early morning
hours into the weekend. A tropical wave will move across the 
waters south of Mexico through mid-week with the potential for 
increasing winds and seas with it. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate winds are occurring offshore Guatemala and El Salvador 
in the wake of a tropical wave, with mainly gentle to moderate 
winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across the offshore 
waters in southerly swell, locally 7 ft south of the Galapagos 
Islands as well as in the wake of the tropical wave.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Guatemala and
El Salvador will shift west of the area this evening. Moderate 
to fresh pulsing NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of 
Papagayo through early Fri as the trade wind flow increases 
across the SW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate 
southerly winds south of the monsoon trough through the week. 


REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Celia, located several hundred miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

High pressure dominates the forecast area north of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough and west of Celia. Mainly light and variable winds
are observed under the influence of this high north of 23N and 
west of 130W, along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in northerly swell. 
Gentle winds are found from 04N to 11N between 100W and 130W. 
Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere, along with 4 to 7 
ft seas, locally 8 ft south of the Equator and west of 95W.

For the forecast, other than the gradually weakening Celia, a 
ridge will persist across the forecast area north of the ITCZ 
and monsoon trough and west of 125W through at least the middle 
of the week, then ridging will build from across the offshore 
waters of Baja California as Celia dissipates. A set of southerly
swell will bring seas of 7 to 9 ft across the waters south of 
the Equator and west of 95W over the next 48 hours. Broad low
pressure forming well S of Mexico currently will move west and
have a low potential of tropical development later this week.

$$
KONARIK


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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Jun-2022 21:01:13 UTC