000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun May 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure in northern
Colombia to across Central America near 09N85W to a 1007 mb low
near 08N105W to 08N115W. The ITCZ begins near 08N115W to 08N130W
to beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 
04N to 10N E of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to
10N between 120W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower 
pressure in Baja California is supporting moderate to fresh 
NW winds offshore the peninsula. Seas with these winds are in 
the range of 5 to 6 ft due to NW swell. In the Gulf of 
California, winds are light and variable S of 30N along with seas
to 2 ft while fresh to strong SW winds are ongoing N of 30N with
seas to 3 ft. The stronger winds in the northern Gulf of
California are due to a pre-frontal trough. Elsewhere in the S
and SW Mexican offshore waters winds are light to gentle from the
NW with moderate seas to 6 ft in mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San 
Lazaro will increase to fresh to strong speeds Sun evening 
through Mon morning while S of Cabo San Lazaro fresh winds will
dominate as a cold front enters the Baja California Norte and 
the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong SW winds in the
northern Gulf of California will pulse again on Sun evening. 
Moderate to fresh winds across the Baja offshore waters will then
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue night through Thu. 
Large NW swell with seas to around 11 ft will follow the front, 
and impact the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon evening 
into Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft
dominate the Central America offshore waters and the waters
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, except for seas to 7
ft S of 02S. Widely scattered showers are across the offshore
zones of Panama and Costa Rica.  

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds S 
of the monsoon trough over the Central America offshore waters 
and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will dominate the 
next few days. Light to gentle variable winds will be prevalent 
elsewhere along with moderate seas due to a S swell. Otherwise, 
seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands will change little 
well into next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

In general, broad high pressure resides over this part of the
area, and is basically controlling the wind flow regime over the
waters N of about 09N and west of about 120W. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures
to the E from southern California to the Gulf of California is 
allowing for moderate to fresh N to NE winds to exist N of 17N
between the Baja California offshore boundary to 140W. Over the
far western tropical waters fresh to strong trade winds prevail
extending N of the ITCZ to 17N and W of 130W. Seas with these 
winds are 9 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds over the 
western part of the area will predominately be at fresh speeds 
late Sun night and change little through mid-week. Seas with 
these winds will be to 8 ft at that same time, but in a decaying 
trend. A weak cold front will continue to move S-SE tonight then
gradually weaken as it moves southward across the waters N of 
23N through early Mon. NW swell following the front will impact 
the waters mainly N of 25W and E of 132W by late on Wed and 
through Thu before it decays. Seas produced by the swell are 
expected to be 8 to 11 ft before subsiding to 8 ft late on Thu. 

$$
Ramos