000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072101
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10.5N82W to 05N95W 
10.5N107W to low pres 1009 mb near 09.5N112W. The ITCZ extends 
from 08N113W to 04N127W to 05N132W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered
to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to
09N and E of 84W, extending into the SW Caribbean. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 09.5N
between 84W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted from 05N to 09N W of 128W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge 
southeastward over the offshore waters of Mexico to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure across interior Mexico is supporting 
moderate NW winds offshore the peninsula, with fresh winds 
NW of Guadalupe Island. Seas across this area are in the range 
of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell, except 8 to 9 ft NW of Guadalupe Island.
Inside the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle and 
variable, with seas to 3 ft, except to 4 ft in S swell across the
southern entrance. Elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters, winds are light to gentle, except along the 
coastal waters of Guerrero and Oaxaca where moderate W to NW 
winds are noted within 90 nm of the coasts. Seas in with these 
winds in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters remain 5 to 6 ft in
mixed S and SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the local area will 
shift NE throughout the week, and act to weaken the pressure 
gradient across the Baja California offshore waters. This will 
lead to the continuation of moderate NW winds across the Baja 
Peninsula waters through Wed, with small areas of locally fresh 
winds developing near the coasts each afternoon and evening, then
weaken to gentle to moderate Thu through Fri. As the high 
pressure shifts northeastward, NW winds will increase across the 
near and offshore waters of California, with fresh NW winds 
extending southward to the Baja Norte waters NW of Guadalupe 
Island. Associated NW swell will continue to move into the area 
offshore waters through the week, with seas in excess of 8 ft 
persisting across the waters north through west of Punta Eugenia 
through Thu evening. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
are expected elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters through
Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms have shifted from the Gulf of
Panama and Colombian coastal waters westward this afternoon, and
now cover much of the waters between 83W and coastal Colombia,
and also extend northward across Costa Rica and Panama into the
adjacent SW Caribbean waters. This active weather is likely
producing frequent, strong gusty winds, and moderate to rough 
seas. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to
fresh S to SW winds across this area feeding into this
convection. Over the remainder Central America offshore waters N
of 06N, winds remain light and variable and seas moderate to 6 
ft in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the S to SW with 5 to 6 
ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are
expected S of 07N through Thu, which will likely continue to 
feed into the very active showers and thunderstorms shifting 
slowly westward across the area today. Computer models show 
abundant low level moisture moving slowly westward across the
area N of 02N through Thu. Favorable upper atmospheric conditions
are expected to support very active convection during this time. 
Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere along with
moderate seas in S swell. Otherwise, southerly swell will 
maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands Wed through
early Fri, increasing to 6 to 8 ft in S swell Fri afternoon 
through Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1031 mb high pressure is centered well offshore of northern
California, near 40N136W, and extends a ridge south and 
southeastward across the subtropical waters, to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate N-NE winds are noted N of 20N 
between 115W and 125W, except fresh winds N of 29N, then become 
NE to E-NE to the west of 126W. Seas across this area N of 20N 
are 6-8 ft in NW swell. S of 20N, between the ridge and the ITCZ 
and W of 120W, moderate to fresh NE winds and 7-9 ft seas in NE 
swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E 
winds are noted with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed SE and SW swell. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters this afternoon will gradually 
diminish to moderate speeds through Fri, as high pressure N of 
the area drifts northeastward. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are expected
across the area of trade winds tonight, and gradually subside 
to 6 to 7 ft through Thu. NW swell across the Baja California 
Norte waters will build through mid week to produce seas of 8 ft 
and greater, mainly N of 25W and E of 130W Wed through Thu night.
The seas there will subside below 8 ft late Thu night, and to 6
ft or less on Sat.

$$
Stripling