000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282111
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N100W to 07N110W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N110W to 07N120W and from 06N130W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 120 nm
south of the ITCZ between 85W and 105W, and from 05N to 10N
between 115W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered near 35N140W
southeastward through the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent ship 
observations and scatterometer satellite data show moderate to 
fresh NW flow off Baja California, mainly north of Cabo San 
Lazaro. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes show 6 to 9 ft 
combined seas, mainly north of Punta Eugenia, likely with a 
component of NW swell. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas 
in mixed swell are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure NE of Hawaii will 
drift NE and well offshore of California today through mid week, 
leading to a weakening pressure gradient, and diminishing winds 
across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across 
the waters to the west of Baja California through mid week as 
strong northerly winds expand across the waters offshore of 
California. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft across the outer waters
of Baja Norte early Mon, and gradually shift westward and build 
further Mon night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters of
Costa Rica. This activity is mostly due to moderate to 
occasionally fresh S to SW winds well south of the region 
converging into the monsoon trough that extends across the 
region, along with weak divergent flow aloft. Meanwhile, gentle 
to moderate winds persist across the offshore areas with moderate
combined seas in southerly swell. 

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 
expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through mid 
week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific
waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail through Mon 
before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 
waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is 
expected across the region Wed night through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1029 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 35N140W is
supporting a large area of fresh trade winds farther south into
the tropical Pacific west of 125W, as noted in recent scatterometer
satellite passes and buoy data. These winds in turn are 
supporting 8 to 10 ft combined seas in the same area, as noted in
concurrent altimeter satellite data. Gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas are noted elsewhere. The convergent trade wind flow
is supporting a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms near
the ITCZ between 115W and 125W.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will begin
to drift NE through mid week. This pressure pattern will 
maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to 
24N, and west of 122W through Tue. Seas there will remain in the 
8 to 10 ft range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft 
are expected north of 24N through Tue, with northerly swell 
offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8 to 12 ft early 
Mon through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W.
Looking ahead, the high pressure will weaken later in the week
ahead of a cold front moving eastward to the north of the region.
This will allow trade winds to diminish through late Fri, 
although combined seas to 8 ft may linger over the tropical 
Pacific west of 135W.

$$
Christensen