871 
AXPZ20 KNHC 010851
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0730 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 12.5N93W to 08.5N106W.
The ITCZ continues from 08.5N106W to 09.5N125W to low pres 1010
mb near 07N138W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
active from 06N to 10N between 99W and 111W, from 07.5N to 09.5N
between 113W and 135W, and from 05.5N to 09N W of 136W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to gale-force NW winds continue across the waters 
offshore of much of California tonight, and are pushing large 
northerly swell into the Baja California offshore waters. Recent 
satellite altimeter data showed NW swell producing seas of 7 to 
8 ft within 60 nm of the coast of Baja California Norte, north of
Punta de San Pablo, while wave heights of 8 to 10 ft are expected
further offshore, and 11 to at least 12 ft west through northwest
of Isla Guadalupe. Moderate to fresh NW winds continue across 
the outer waters of Baja California Norte west of 118W, between 
high pressure northwest of the area, and lower pressure inland. 
Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail elsewhere across the 
Baja waters southward to the Revillagigedo Islands, where recent
satellite altimeter data shows seas are 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to 
moderate breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas persist across the remaining
open offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh SW to S 
winds have developed across the northern Gulf of California,
where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and slight 
seas area elsewhere across the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with large
NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west of 
Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere off Baja. Moderate to locally fresh SW to S winds will
continue across the northern Gulf of California through midday
Wed, ahead of a dissipating cold front moving into the region. 
Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds will persist across 
Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate combined seas, 
primarily in NW swell over open waters. Looking ahead, winds and 
seas will begin to diminish off Baja California late Thu into 
Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell 
subsides.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A cluster of strong thunderstorms are along the coast, straddling
the borders of Costa Rica and Panama. Elsewhere only a few small
clusters of showers and thunderstorms dot the waters between
there and the Galapagos Islands. Recent satellite scatterometer
data suggests winds are light to gentle across most of the area
waters, except near convection. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in new S 
swell, except between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, where
altimeter data shows 6 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 
expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean into the
upcoming weekend, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the
area Pacific waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will rise 
very slightly across the regional waters into Wed. Looking ahead,
reinforcing S swell is expected across the region early Thu 
through Sat before subsiding Sat night through Sun.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge extends from high pressure centered well north of 
the area, southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge 
is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 09N and 
west of 120W. Recent satellite altimeter data confirmed combined
seas of 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 16N west of 118W. Fresh to strong 
NW to N winds are noted north of 28.5N between 120W and 130W, 
between the high pressure and lower pressure inland. NW swell of 
8 to 14 ft accompanies these winds. Farther south, a 1010 mb
surface low is moving slowly westward along the ITCZ near 07N138W,
and continues to produce scattered thunderstorms, mainly along 
the ITCZ with and ahead of it. Divergent flow aloft between a  
middle level trough extending from southern Baja California to 
near 10N140W, and an upper ridge farther east is working with low
level trade wind convergence to support clusters of shower and 
thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 113W and 136W. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell persist
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern or
resultant conditions are expected through early Fri. Winds and 
seas will diminish Fri into Sat as the high pressure to the 
north weakens ahead of an approaching cold front. Looking ahead,
this cold front is expected to move southward into the northern
waters Sat evening, and reach from Baja Norte to 25N140W by Sun
evening. Moderate NW swell will follow the front.

$$
Stripling