Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 180405

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Mar 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC. 


A surface trough axis extends from low pres over NW Colombia
to the Pacific coast of Colombia at 08N79W to 05N100W to 05N111W
where latest scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ axis begins
and continues westward 06N123W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south 
of the axis between 90W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection 
is within 30 nm of the axis between 84W and 87W.



A dissipating cold front extends from the extreme southwestern 
part of California southwestward to across the extreme northwest 
portion of the Gulf of California, and continues to near 27N122W.
A 1020 mb high is centered at 26N120W, with a ridge extending 
southeastward to 15N100W. The front will dissipate this 
afternoon, while the high center will remain about stationary. 
The high center will then become centered slightly to the 
southwest on Mon and Tue. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds
will develop from 21N to 22N between 110W and 112W this morning,
then from 19N to 20N E of 106W this evening, from 18.5N to 20N 
between 105.5W and 106W early Mon, with maximum seas of 8 ft, and
from 18N to 20.5N between 105W and 107W by Mon evening with seas
of 8 ft. 

Gulf of California: A dissipating cold front is moving across 
the far NW portion of the gulf. Strong southwest to west winds 
are occurring from 29.5N to 30.5N. The front will be followed by 
strong northwest to north through this morning and diminish to 
moderate winds this afternoon. Elsewhere over the gulf, moderate 
northwest flow will be present, except increasing to fresh 
northwest to north winds over the southern portion tonight, and 
continue through Mon before increasing to strong early Mon 
evening and continuing through Tue. Seas with these winds will 
be in the range of 5 to 6 ft.

Fresh to locally strong northwest to north flow expected across 
the open Pacific waters from 18N to 23N east of 110W on Sun 
through Mon night with seas building to 8 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong north flow will surge through the 
gulf waters on Tue night, increasing to minimal gale force 
early on Wed. Gale conditions of 30 to 40 kt are then expected 
to continue through late Thu night, with seas building to 15 ft 
downstream of the gulf near 14.5N95.5W on Wed night. 


Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE nocturnal winds,
with seas of 5 to 7 ft will diminish to moderate intensity 
this afternoon, then increase again to strong tonight, and
continue through Mon.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh northerly winds will diminish to moderate
winds this afternoon, then briefly increase to fresh tonight
before diminishing again to moderate intensity on Mon.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. 


A cold front will approach the far NW corner this morning, with 
the pres gradient tightening up ahead of it. This will develop 
strong south to southwest winds from 26N to 28N W of 136W 
tonight. The cold front will reach from near 32N134W to 24N140W 
by early on Mon, with a second cold front expected to approach 
the far NW corner at that time. Strong south to southwest winds 
are forecast for N of 25N within 300 nm east of the first cold 
front, with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Southwest to west strong winds 
are expected N of 29N and W of 138W early on Mon, with seas of 8 
to 10 ft. By early Mon evening, strong to near gale force SW to 
W winds along with seas of 9 to 12 ft are expected within 120 nm 
east and southeast of the second cold front along a position 
from 32N138W to 29N140W. West to northwest strong winds, with 
seas of 10 to 13 ft in a NW swell are expected west of the 
second cold front. It is possible that near gale force southwest 
to west winds associated with the second cold front may become 
gale conditions on Tue. 


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Page last modified: Sunday, 18-Mar-2018 04:05:44 UTC