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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122208
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Apr 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind 
event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 14N. Combined seas of 
about 14 ft are ongoing in the plume of gale force winds, but 
seas in the 8-12 ft seas range extend to 09N and 102W. Ongoing 
high pressure north of the area will continue to funnel these 
gales through Sat morning, dropping to near gale or strong breeze
late Sat, and finally dissipating Sun night. Peak seas should 
drop below 12 ft Sat afternoon and below 8 ft Sun afternoon. 
Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through the weekend should be aware of this ongoing gap wind 
event and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine 
conditions over the affected waters. 

Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas 
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 06N77W to 05N81W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N82W to 08N118W to 04N131W to beyond 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 12N between
82W and 105W, and from 06N to 13N between 109W and 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.

Outside of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle variable winds 
persist across the Mexican offshore waters, except for moderate
to fresh SE winds along the southern and central Gulf of 
California, and strong SE winds in the northern portion of the 
Gulf N of 30N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California 
with a component of NW swell, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere except 1 
to 4 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, low 
pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will continue to
support fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of 
California. These winds will be reinforced by a weak cold front 
that will be moving across the waters west of Baja California 
Norte on Sat and Sun. This wil allow the continuation of fresh to
strong winds in the northern Gulf of California through early Sun
morning. In the wake of the cold front, building high pressure 
should cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja California
peninsula Sun night into late Tue. Afterward, gentle to moderate
NW winds will dominate the Baja Peninsula offshores through Wed
night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to
strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of
Nicaragua downwind to about 92W. Gentle to moderate easterly 
winds from this gap wind event extend into the outer offshore 
waters El Salvador and Guatemala. Seas over these two offshore
zones are in the 5-9 ft range. The ridge over the Caribbean also
influences fresh to strong NNE gap winds in the Gulf of Panama N
of 05N. Light and variable winds prevail across the rest of the 
Central American and Equatorial Pacific waters. Outside of the 
Papagayo region, seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the large N-S pressure gradient setting up 
over Central America will support fresh to strong NE to E winds 
tonight, and near gale force winds Sat night over the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. The forcing will diminish some on Sun into Tue, 
but fresh to strong winds are expected to continue through early 
next week. The same pressure gradient will continue to support  
fresh to strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through 
Sun. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker for the 
next several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will propagate across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador tomorrow through Sat night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging dominates the waters north of 14N and west of 
120W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds 
mainly north of 06N and west of 130W. Combined seas are 6 to 8 
ft in this region, with a component of mixed NE and NW swell. 
Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken over the next
couple of days allowing the trades to diminish even further into 
Sat. A cold front will move eastward across the waters north of 
25N into Baja California through Sun, before dissipating. Seas 
should reach to 12 ft near the northern border of the discussion 
area at 30N Sat, before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to 
N swell will then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching 
as far south of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell 
will cross the equator heading northward. These interacting swell
will cause combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 
115W. By late Sat, a long tail of fresh to strong NE to E winds 
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of Papagayo region will
reach as far west as 102W and as far south as 08N. Seas will 
reach up to 10 ft.

$$
Ramos

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Page last modified: Friday, 12-Apr-2024 22:08:58 UTC