Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 270336

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0220 UTC.


A surface trough extends from 10N84W to 05N93W to 05N95W. The 
ITCZ extends from 05N95W to 06N115W to 04N125W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 07N between 123W and 136W.


The combination of a 1030 mb high pressure centered NW of the 
area near 37N130W and lower pressures over northern Mexico is 
leading to fresh NNW winds of the waters west of Baja California,
from Cabo San Lazaro northward. Moderate winds are south of Cabo
San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere offshore Mexico, expect for moderate NW winds noted in 
the southern and central Gulf of California. Large NW swell is 
still impacting the waters off Baja California. A satellite 
altimeter pass from 26/1800 UTC showed that combined seas were up
to 13 ft in the vicinity of 118W, between 25.5N and 27N. These 
seas have likely subsided to about 12 ft since that time. 
Combined seas in excess of 8 ft are occurring west of 110W. Seas 
are 3-4 ft in the southern Gulf of California and 1-2 ft in the N
Gulf. Seas east of 105W are mainly in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds will 
continue tonight in the offshore waters of Baja California. 
Large NW swell will also impact these waters through tonight. 
Winds and seas will gradually diminish Mon afternoon, as the high
pressure dissipates ahead of the next low pressure system moving
toward California. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft 
everywhere in Mexican waters by late Tue. Elsewhere, fresh to
strong NNW winds will develop over the Gulf of California Mon and
diminish by Tue. Looking ahead, large swell will return to Baja 
California Norte offshore waters by late Thu associated with the 
remnants of the low pressure north of the area. Fresh to strong
winds are also possible Wed night through Thu across the waters
offshore Baja California Norte and in the northern Gulf of


High pressure north of the area continues to sustain fresh to 
strong easterly trade winds in Gulf of Papagayo waters, 
extending westward to 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. 
Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the 
rest of the forecast waters.

For the forecast, strong easterly gap winds will pulse nightly 
across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of southern Nicaragua 
tonight through at least Fri night. Seas of 6-7 ft are expected 
each night, but will build to 8-9 ft mid to late week in this 
area. Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama nightly Tue 
night through Fri night, with building seas late in the work 
week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail 
elsewhere through the forecast period. 


Large NNW swell is propagating over the open waters of the
tropical Pacific. Fresh NE to ENE trade winds prevail across a
large area north of the ITCZ from 07N to 26N and west of 120W.
The combination of the NNW swell and the shorter period NE to E
trade wind swell is producing combined seas of 8-12 ft across
most of the area west of 115W. The exception is the NW corner of
the TAFB forecast area, north of 27N and west of 130W, where a
high pressure ridge has gentle winds. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in that
area. South of 15N and east of 115W, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Seas decrease from about 8 ft near 115W to near 4 ft
just W of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, large swell over open waters will gradually
subside through Tue, when it will be confined mainly to a 8-10 ft
trade wind swell from the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. The area
of fresh trades will also shrink in areal extent from the ITCZ to
22N and west of 125W by Tue. Seas north of 22N will also continue
to subside through early Tue. A new cold front will enter the
area Tue, extend from 30N121W to 26N130W to 26N140W by early Wed,
and from 30N120W to 23N130W to 24N140W by Wed evening. Large N
swell associated with the front will move across the northern
waters late Wed through Thu, then gradually subside as it moves 
southward Fri.


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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Mar-2023 03:36:32 UTC