849 
AXPZ20 KNHC 280846
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 09.5N74W to 09N90W to 07N102W
to 08N112W. The ITCZ continues from 08N112W to 09.5N118W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 06N to 11N E of 89W, and from 03N to 07N W of 133W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere 
from 03N to 10N between 80W and 131W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1030 mb center of high pressure located NE of the Hawaiian 
Islands extends a broad ridge southeastward to just south of the
Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressures over central Mexico is supporting moderate 
to fresh NW to N winds across the Pacific offshore waters of Baja
California, and extend to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas 
there are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell, except 8 to 10 ft across the
outer waters of Baja Norte. Gentle to moderate northerly winds 
are prevalent across the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 3 
ft. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft in 
mixed NW and SW swell prevail across the remainder of the S and 
SW Mexican offshore waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure will drift NE and well
offshore of California today through mid week, leading to a
weakening pressure gradient, and diminishing winds across the
area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across the waters 
to the west of Baja California today, and increase Sun afternoon
through mid week as strong northerly winds expand across the
waters offshore of California. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft 
across the outer waters of Baja Norte early Mon, and gradually 
shift westward and increase further Mon night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered thunderstorms persist across the offshore waters 
north of 07N and E of 89W, affecting the near and offshore 
waters from the Papagayo region to coastal Colombia. Gentle to 
moderate SW winds generally prevail across this area, with seas 
of 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. Elsewhere W of the Papagayo 
region, winds are variable at gentle to moderate speeds with 4 to
5 ft seas. S of 07N to between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador
gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail, with seas of 5 to 7 
ft. 

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is
expected to persist across the SW Caribbean through mid week,
leading to winds of moderate or less speeds across the area 
waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail through Mon 
before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 
waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, a more significant S 
swell is expected across the region Wed night through Thu.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
early nex
A 1030 mb center of high pressure near 34N140W extends a broad 
ridge SE across the offshore waters of central Mexico. The 
associated pressure gradient south of this ridge is maintaining 
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 06N to 26N W of 115W.
Seas in this region are 7-10 ft in mixed N and NE swell. N of 
26N and W of 125W, winds are moderate from the N to NE, with 
seas in the 5-7 ft range in northerly swell. Gentle to moderate 
SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate, cross equatorial S 
swell prevail near and S of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the high pressure N of the area will begin to
drift NE this afternoon through mid week. This pressure pattern
will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ
to 24N, and west of 122W through Tue. Seas there will remain in
the 7 to 10 ft range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 
ft are expected north of 24N through Tue, with northerly swell 
offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8 to 12 ft early 
Mon through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W. Little
change is forecast across the remainder of the waters through 
mid week.

$$
Stripling