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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152159
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2105 UTC Tue Jan 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico continues to funnel north to northeast winds through the 
Chivela Pass and into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Both Ascat and 
Windsat data from this afternoon depicted 30-35 kt winds across 
and downstream from the Gulf reaching to near 14.5N and between 
94W and 96W. Strong to near gale force north to northeast winds
are south of 14.5N to near 12N and between 95W and 98W. The gale
force winds are forecast to continue into early Wed afternoon,
at which time high pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will 
shift eastward and weaken. This was allow for the strong pressure
gradient over southeastern Mexico to slacken, enabling the gale
force winds to lower to just below gale force. The winds will 
diminish further, to strong category by late Friday. Maximum 
seas presently reaching 14 ft with the gale force winds will
gradually subside through the end of the week. For more 
information, refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFEP2. In the long term, a rather 
powerful storm-force gap wind event is possible beginning on Sun.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough extends from central Colombia to the coast at 03N79W and 
continues to 04N85W to 04N91W, where it briefly ends. A 1012 mb
low is centered near 05N104W. Latest scatterometer data indicates
that the ITCZ then resumes at 04N106W and continues to 07N122W to 
07N131W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 126W and 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Winds west of Baja California are light and variable and will
remain below strong breeze through Fri morning. A developing 
storm over the U.S. Great Basin will help to tighten the pressure
gradient and force strong breeze NW to N winds Fri and Saturday.
NW swell of 8 to 11 ft are currently impacting these waters, 
which will gradually weaken through Thu night. A more pronounced
and extensive set of northwest swell, with resulting seas
possibly peaking up to 15 ft will begin to arrive beginning 
early on Fri and gradually subside through Sun.

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds will persist in 
the Gulf through early Sat. These will become strong northwest 
winds Sat through Sun due to the developing storm system over 
the Great Basin. Wind waves could reach 8 ft on the weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: See discussion above for on-going Gale
Warning.

Substantial high cloudiness with isolated showers are 
being advected across the water south of Baja California and into
western Mexico ahead of a mid to upper-level trough along 122W. 
These should gradually diminish over the next couple of days. 


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: An Ascat pass from this afternoon indicated 
strong northeast winds across the Gulf due to a moderate 
pressure gradient over the western Caribbean and Central America.
The strongest winds and areal coverage will be greater late 
night and early morning hours as nocturnal drainage augments the 
winds. Winds are expected to briefly increase to near gale force 
late Thu night before diminishing back to mainly strong winds
Fri. Peak seas will be in the range of 8-10 ft, except possibly 
up to 11 ft Thu night. These conditions will continue through 
Sat.

Gulf of Panama: An Ascat pass from thus afternoon showed 
strong northeast winds over the Gulf. The strongest winds and 
areal coverage will be greater late night and early morning hours
as nocturnal drainage augments the winds. Peak seas will reach 
about 8 ft. These conditions will continue through Fri before 
weakening on Sat and Sunday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

An overnight scatterometer pass showed SW strong breeze 
conditions north of 28N between 123W and 130W. These will
gradually weaken and pull northward. Late tonight renewed SW
strong breeze ahead of the next cold front will reach our
northwestern corner at 30N140W. The front will not progress far
south into the area and W to NW winds behind the front should
remain at fresh breeze or weaker conditions.

The main story elsewhere is that long-period northwest swell
producing seas of least 8 ft covers most of the area west of 
110W. Maximum seas of 14 ft are near 30N127W. These seas will
slowly subside through Thu night. An extensive set of northwest 
swell, bringing maximum seas up to around 19 or 20 ft over the 
northern waters west of 125W, is forecast by the Wave models to 
arrive beginning early on Thu, then gradually subside through 
Sat as it propagates southeastward.

Farther to the southeast, a weak 1012 mb low is centered at 
05N104W with scattered moderate convection within 210 nm of the 
low in the northeast quadrant and 180 nm of the low in the
southeast quadrant. Fresh to strong east winds are noted on the 
northern periphery of the low. The latest altimeter passes 
highlighted seas to 9 ft in the area of strong winds. This 
feature formed at the base of a negatively tilted mid/upper 
trough reaching into the deep tropics. The trough will continue 
to move westward, reaching to near 120W by Fri. Winds and seas 
will diminish thereafter as the trough moves west of its upper 
support and weakens. In addition to the trough, the area from 04N
to 15N between 95W and 110W will also see combined seas of 8 to 
12 ft in a mix of long period northwest swell and shorter period
northeast and east swell that will propagate out of the gap wind
areas.

$$
Aguirre

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 15-Jan-2019 21:59:38 UTC