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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200911
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 UTC Tue Feb 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California Gale Warning: Gale force NW winds, with seas 
to 8 ft are N of 30N tonight behind a cold front. The front will
move E of the area on Tue, with marine conditions quickly 
improving thereafter.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends SW from 05N77W to 07N89W to 03N101W. 
The ITCZ continues from 03N101W to 03N115W to 07N125W to 
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N 
between 127W and 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

As of 0600 UTC, a cold front is moving across the northern Gulf 
of California and central Baja California. Please, see Special 
Features section for more details. Strengthening high pressure in
the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong NW winds 
spreading SE across the waters W of the Baja Norte through 
tonight, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 8 to 12 ft. 
This swell event will continue to spread across the offshore 
waters W of Baja through Wed with seas of 8-10 ft. Seas of 8 ft 
will reach the Revillagigedo Islands by Wed night. Then, seas 
gradually subsiding to less than 8 ft on Thu.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: mainly light and variable winds are expected
over the next couple of days, with seas generally under 4 ft.
Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-25 kt Thu night into
Fri, with seas building to 8 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through 
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 90W through the 
forecast period, with seas building to 9 ft during the overnight 
and early morning hours.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal N winds are 
expected across the western Gulf of Panama through Tue evening, 
with these conditions extending as far S as 05N80W.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
09N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure of 1037 mb located well N of the area near 
39N140W extends a ridge SE across the forecast waters to near 
the Revillagigedo Islands. This system will move south in about 
24 hours, reaching a position near 37N140W while slightly 
weakening. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will result in fresh 
to strong trade winds across the tropical waters W of 125W. This 
conditions will persist for the reamainder of the work week as 
the high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger high.

Long period NW swell dominates roughly the waters N of 12N W of 
110W, while cross equatorial SW swell is affecting the remainder
of the forecast area, reaching the coast of Mexico S of Cabo
Corrientes, and the coast of Central America. Seas of 8 ft or
greater can be found N of 10N W of 115W by Tue night.  

$$
Formosa

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Feb-2018 09:11:58 UTC