000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051000
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pressure in northern
Colombia to across Central America near 11N85W to a 1009 mb low 
near 08N105W to 08N120W. The ITCZ begins near 08N120W to 08N130W
to beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 
04N to 14N E of 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 06N to 10N between 113W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower 
pressure in Baja California is supporting moderate to fresh 
NW winds offshore the peninsula. Seas with these winds are in 
the range of 5 to 6 ft due to NW swell. In the Gulf of 
California, winds are light and variable S of 30N along with seas
to 2 ft while gentle to moderate SW winds are ongoing N of 30N 
with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore 
waters winds are light to gentle from the NW with moderate seas 
to 6 ft in mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San 
Lazaro will increase to fresh to strong speeds this evening 
through Mon morning while S of Cabo San Lazaro fresh winds will 
dominate as a cold front enters the Baja California Norte and the
northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong SW winds will pulse
again this evening in the northern Gulf of California. Moderate 
to fresh winds across the Baja offshore waters will diminish to 
gentle to moderate speeds Tue night through Thu. Large NW swell 
with seas to around 11 ft will follow the front, and impact the 
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon evening into Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in the 4 to 6 ft
dominate the Central America offshore waters and the waters
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, except for seas to 7
ft S of 02S. Widely scattered showers are across the offshore
zones of Panama and Costa Rica.  

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds S 
of the monsoon trough over the Central America offshore waters 
and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will dominate the 
next few days. Light to gentle variable winds will be prevalent 
elsewhere along with moderate seas due to a S swell. Otherwise, 
seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands will change little 
well into next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

In general, broad high pressure resides over this part of the
area, and is basically controlling the wind flow regime over the
waters N of about 09N and west of about 120W. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures
to the E from southern California to the Gulf of California is 
allowing for moderate to fresh N to NE winds to exist N of 17N
between the Baja California offshore boundary to 140W. Over the
far western tropical waters fresh trade winds prevail extending 
N of the ITCZ to 17N and W of 130W. Seas with these winds are 8 
to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the western part of the
tropical waters will prevail through mid-week. Seas with these 
winds will be to 8 ft at that same time, but in a decaying trend.
A weak cold front will continue to move S-SE today then 
gradually weaken as it moves southward across the waters N of 23N
through early Mon. NW swell following the front will impact the 
waters mainly N of 25W and E of 132W by late on Wed and through 
Thu before it decays. Seas produced by the swell are expected to 
be 8 to 11 ft before subsiding to 8 ft late on Thu. 

$$
Ramos