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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252202
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Mar 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong north to south 
pressure gradient is expected to develop across southern Mexico 
tonight as high pressure builds across the western Gulf of 
Mexico and eastern Mexico. This will support strengthening gap 
winds funneling through the Chivela Pass with winds likely 
reaching gale force by late tonight. North to northeast winds 
are expected to continue pulsing to gale force Tue through Thu 
with winds nearing strong gale force during the late night and 
early morning hours. Seas will peak around 18 ft Wed morning, and
northeast swell generated by this event will propagate well 
downstream beyond 100W. Gale conditions will diminish by early 
Thu afternoon with winds becoming north at mainly fresh speeds 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Fri and light and then light and
variable late on Fri, with seas lowering to below 8 ft as high 
pressure shifts east-northeast away from the region.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or 
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
specific marine details related to this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 05N81W 
to 06N87W, where scatterometer data from this afternoon 
indicates the ITCZ begins and continues to 04N100W to 02N111W to 
02N125W to 03N135W and to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 137W,
and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 124W and 128W and 
also between 133W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...  

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please refer to the Special Features section
above for details on a Gale Warning that is currently in effect.

Gulf of California: Relatively tranquil conditions will continue
through Thu with winds remaining less than 15 kt and seas 
generally in the 2-4 ft range. On Fri northwest winds will 
increase slightly to the moderate to fresh range.

The pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure system
centered west of Baja California Norte near 28N125W and lower 
pressure over interior Mexico will maintain moderate to locally 
fresh northwest to north winds over the offshore waters to the 
west of the Baja Peninsula through Wed night. Peak seas were 
analyzed to 10 ft this morning off Baja California Sur based on 
recent altimeter data, but have subside slightly since then.
Northwest propagating through these waters will gradually decay 
through midweek as seas subside below 8 ft by Wed. By Thu, a 
a stronger high pressure system will build towards the region 
Thu with fresh to strong northwest to north winds expected over 
the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night through Fri 
night, with seas building to 8-10 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong to near gale force northeast to east 
winds will continue pulsing over the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Fri night. The strongest winds will occur during the late night 
and early morning hours as nocturnal drainage flow enhances wind 
speeds. Seas will build to 11 ft by Wed morning as northeast
swell propagates well downstream from the Gulf through Fri 
night.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds over 
the Gulf of Panama will strengthen to fresh to strong speeds late
Tue night and persist through late week as high pressure 
rebuilds over the Caribbean. Seas will build to 8 ft downstream 
of the Gulf Wed through Fri as cross-equatorial SW swell mixes 
with the NE wind waves.

Southern hemispheric swell will continue to impacting the region
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands with seas building to 
8 ft well offshore by Wed as another set of long-period southwest
swell crosses the region. Otherwise, light to moderate winds 
will remain through this week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front over the northwest part of the area extends from
near 32N126W to 26N135W and to 22N140W, with associated 
northwest swell, consisting of seas in the 8-12 ft range, 
impacting the region. Another cold front will move across the 
northwest waters Tue evening along a position from near 32N125W 
to 25N132W, and become stationary to 22N136W. This front will 
introduce another set of long-period northwest swell. This will 
be followed by yet another cold front that will stall just to the
northwest of the forecast area Thu night into Fri, with yet 
another set of long- period northwest swell that will propagate 
through the far northwest waters at that time.

An enhanced pressure gradient between high pressure centered
near 28N125W and the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE to E trade 
winds from roughly 06N to 12N west of 120W. Altimeter data
from this morning showed  peak seas within this area reached 12 
ft, likely a combination of long period northwest swell and 
shorter period northeast wind waves. These trade winds will 
briefly diminish on Tue and Tue night as high pressure weakens.
On Thu, stronger high pressure will build north of 30N on Thu 
and persist through Fri night. The tightening pressure gradient 
should support fresh to strong trade winds over a greater 
coverage than what recently occurred through Fri night west of 
about 125W.

Elsewhere, northwest swell propagating across the high seas 
domain is maintaining seas of 8 ft or greater over the waters 
generally north of 01N and west of 104W. The northeast swell 
generated by gap winds over the Gulfs of Papagayo and Tehuantepec
will merge with northwest swell and long period cross-equatorial
S to SW swell Tue through Fri night. This will result in a large
swath of 8-10 ft seas encompassing an area generally south of 
15N and west of 91W to beyond 140W during the late portion of 
the week.

$$
Aguirre

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Page last modified: Monday, 25-Mar-2019 22:02:36 UTC