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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260956
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
955 UTC Thu Apr 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 08N100W. The 
intertropical convergence zone continues from 08N100W to beyond 
06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 04N
between 80W and 87W. Scattered moderate convection also noted 
along the ITCZ from 03N to 12N between 110W and 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure west of Baja California will dissipate 
early this morning ahead of a weakening cold front advancing 
from the west. The front will also dissipate before reaching the
coast of Baja California through late this afternoon. A ridge 
will build in the wake of the front, allowing NW winds in the 
offshore waters to become fresh by late today. Seas will build to
8 ft tonight off Baja California Sur south of Cabo San Lazaro 
toward the Revillagigedo Islands in a combination of the 15 to 20
kt NW flow and longer period NW swell propagating through the 
region. The fresh NW winds will spread Fri into Sat and becoming 
locally strong as troughing forms over the Colorado River valley 
north of the region. The large area of fresh to occasionally 
strong NW winds will allow 8 to 10 ft seas off the Baja 
California coast through Sun. 

Light to gentle W to NW winds are expected in the Gulf of 
California through Sat.

Farther south, fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, particularly during Sat 
morning as high pressure builds over the western Gulf of Mexico. 

Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds are expected through 
Sun with 4 to 6 ft seas.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh northeast nocturnal winds are expected in and downstream 
of the Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, resuming on Sunday
night. Gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail elsewhere N
of 09N, and light to gentle SW winds are expected S of 09N with
seas of 4-6 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A weak cold front extends from 32N129W to 24N140W. This front 
will move slowly east while dissipating into a trough through the
morning. A ridge will build behind the dissipating front through
the weekend. Moderate to fresh northeast trade winds and 7-9 ft 
seas are observed across the tropical waters between 07N and 20N,
south of the subtropical ridge and north of the the ITCZ. These 
winds will increase to fresh to locally strong as the pressure 
increases north of this region into the upcoming weekend. This 
will also result in an increase of the areal coverage of seas of 
8-9 ft.

7-8 ft southerly swell observed south of the equator between 90W 
and 120W will gradually subside through Thu morning.

Trade wind convergence along the ITCZ along with upper divergence
south of an ridge aloft near 14N113W is resulting in scattered 
showers and thunderstorms 03N to 12N between 110W and 125W.

$$
Christensen

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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Apr-2018 09:56:26 UTC