234 
AXPZ20 KNHC 050240
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Jul 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is 
centered a few hundred miles south of southwestern Mexico. 
Gradual development of this system is anticipated during the next
few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form late 
this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-
northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. There is a medium 
chance of tropical formation within the next two days, and a high
chance within the next seven days. Please refer to the latest 
NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, from 04N northward, 
moving west around 10 kt. Nearby convection is noted in the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough section below.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, from 05N northward, 
moving west around 10 to 15 kt. An area of low pressure centered
near 13.5N104W is noted where the wave axis intersects the 
monsoon trough. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on 
this feature. Nearby convection is noted in the ITCZ/monsoon
trough section below.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 13N104W to 08N120W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N 
E of 93W, and from 12N to 17N between 99W and 111W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 132W and 
140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the 
potential for tropical cyclone development off the coast of 
southern Mexico this weekend or early next week. 

The remnant low of Flossie is moving through the Baja California
Sur waters, centered near 24N117W. Moderate winds, and seas of 6
to 8 ft are noted near this system. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted in the vicinity of a tropical wave
and low pressure discussed above. Gentle to moderate winds, and
seas of 2 to 3 ft are in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 5 to 6 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Flossie will move 
northwestward through the Baja California Sur waters tonight, 
producing mainly moderate winds and rough seas over these waters.
The low will dissipate Sat, with winds and seas decreasing. 
Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong winds and rough seas are 
expected off the coast of southern Mexico this weekend as an area
of low pressure moves generally west- northwestward well off the
coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is 
anticipated during the next few days, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form late this weekend or early next week. There is 
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two
days, and a high chance within the next seven days. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted N of the monsoon trough, with
gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the
5-6 ft range, except S and SW of the Galapagos Islands where seas
are reaching 7 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate E winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo this weekend before strengthening early next week. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Moderate seas 
in S to SW swell will prevail over the regional waters. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure, and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate
winds N of the ITCZ. Light to gentle winds prevail N of the
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted S of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into early next week. Rough seas 
in the north- central waters, north of 25N between 120W and 130W,
will subside this evening. South of the monsoon trough, rough 
seas in S to SW swell will slowly subside by Sat morning. Fresh 
to occasionally strong winds and rough seas will develop over the
waters E of 120W this weekend as a tropical wave, and associated
low pressure, moves generally west- northwestward well off the 
coast of Mexico. Please see above for more on the potential for
tropical cyclone development associated with this system.

$$
AL