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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



126 
AXPZ20 KNHC 120957
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
957 UTC Wed Aug 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Elida is centered near 23.0N 117.7W at 12/0900 UTC
moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident
within 60 nm in the north quadrant. Elida is starting to weaken
as it moves farther west into cooler waters. Please read the 
latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details.

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to produce a 
broad of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become 
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely 
to form within the next couple of days. There is a high chance
this system will develop into a tropical cyclone slowly westward
to west- northwestward into the central Pacific over the next 
several days.

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low 
pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
southwestward for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, 
and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late 
this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the 
coast of southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance this low may 
develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. 
At a minimum, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas in 
offshore waters between Puerto Angel and Cabo Corrientes through 
Fri, and between Socorro Island and Cabo San Lucas Fri through
Sat.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 80W, north of 02W through
central Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A few thunderstorms
are ongoing over Panama near the wave axis. An area of low
pressure is expected to form along the wave axis in a few days 
over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the 
coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression could form this 
weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. At a
minimum, heavy rainfall is possible over Costa Rica and Panama
through the latter part of the week.

A tropical wave axis is near 98W, extending southward from the 
southern Mexico to 03N. A 1011 mb low pressure is located near 
10N where the wave axis intersects the monsoon trough. The wave 
is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted north of 10N between 95W and 
100W. southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple 
of days. As described in the Special Features section, 
environmental conditions appear conducive for development 
thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical 
depression late this week or over the weekend while it moves 
generally west-northwestward. Peak seas from this system are 
expected to be near 15 ft on Fri and Sat, though this may need to
be boosted significantly if the system does develop into a 
tropical cyclone.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1011 mb low pressure 
near another 1001 mb low pressure area near 11N98W to 11N105W. 
The monsoon trough resumes from 15N115W to 1010 mb low pressure 
near 12N129W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is present from 15N to 18N between 95W and 105W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
10N to 14N between 115W and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Aside from Hurricane Elida and the tropical wave near 98W, fresh
to strong northerly gap winds - primarily late night and early 
morning - should occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end
of the week. Seas should peak near 8 ft from this weak
Tehuantepecer.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

A moderate north-south pressure gradient across Central America 
will promote fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
region starting mid-week. Moderate to fresh S winds will persist
south of the monsoon trough through Thu night. An area of low 
pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern 
portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central 
America. As stated above, conditions are expected to be 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form 
this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. Even if
this does not occur, expect locally heavy rainfall over portions
of Panama and Costa Rica. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the special features section above for more 
information about Hurricane Elida and the two developing low
pressure systems.

The subtropical ridge dominates the waters north of 20N. A cold
front previously in the area north of 29N and west of 138W has
dissipated. No significant winds are noted, but NW swell to 8 ft
will present in the area through the 18 to 24 hours or so.

Farther south, low pressure is forming near 12N129W 1010 mb.Some
gradual development of this system is possible later this week 
while the system moves slowly westward to west of 140W.

Elsewhere moderate north- south pressure gradient between the 
high and the monsoon trough is promoting generally gentle to 
moderate NE winds across the waters. Fresh SW flow south of the 
monsoon trough will increase to fresh to strong through Wed, with
seas building to 8 to 9 ft, before diminishing later in the 
week. 

$$
Christensen


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 12-Aug-2020 09:58:21 UTC