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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222138
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2138 UTC Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Ashfall Advisory: The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over S 
Guatemala is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the 
surface through early evening N of 14N and E of 93W. Low level 
visibilities may be reduced to 1 nm. Mariners should exercise 
caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged 
to report the observation to the National Weather Service by 
calling 305-229-4425. 

Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the 
ashfall advisory.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 02N96W. The ITCZ axis 
continues westward from 02N96W to 04N120W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is within an area bounded by 14N126W to 
09N124W to 07N133W to 09N140W to 13N140W to 12N135W to 14N126W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will briefly 
increase to 20-25 kt late tonight through Fri morning before
diminishing, with seas briefly peaking at 7-8 ft during the 
event.

A weakening cold front is pushing across the northern Gulf of
California and Baja California Norte. Only light to moderate 
winds are following the front, however, a new cold front or 
trough will also move into the area by Fri evening. Northerly 
winds behind that next boundary will increase to fresh to strong
by Fri evening and will spread southward across the Gulf through
Sat afternoon, with fresh to occasionally strong winds then 
persisting across the central and southern Gulf through early 
next week. Seas will also build to 5-7 ft during the stronger 
winds.

High pressure N of the area will continue to support moderate NW 
to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula accompanied by NW swell of 5-
8 ft N of 17N this evening. This area of swell will decay 
through Fri. Reinforcing high pres behind a new cold front or
trough will bring fresh to locally strong NW winds W of Baja 
California Norte by Fri afternoon, spreading southward Fri night 
and Sat, with seas reaching to 8-9 ft. Conditions will improve 
for the second half of the weekend into early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong NE winds will continue 
to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 
90W through Sat, then will pulse to fresh thereafter. Seas will 
build to 8 ft through early Fri, then will peak around 7 ft 
thereafter.

In the Gulf of Panama, northerly flow will pulse to fresh levels
during the overnight and early morning hours through Sat morning.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
05N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pres extending from well NW of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong trade winds across the waters N of the
convergence zone and W of 115W through the next several days. A
surrounding area of seas of 8-12 ft in mixed fresh NE swell and
longer period NW swell will also persist. 

A reinforcing set of northerly swell will drop S of 32N Fri
afternoon through the weekend, generated by gale force winds N of
the area offshore of California NW of Cape Mendocino.

$$
Lewitsky


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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Feb-2018 21:38:47 UTC