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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180342
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jun 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Depression Carlotta is near 17.2N 102.2W 
at 18/0300 UTC, or 40 nm SW of Zihuatanejo Mexico, moving WNW 04 
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The 
maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 
knots. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPEP4/WTPZ34 KNHC for more details. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 
nm in the SW semicircle. Dangerous surf and rough seas can be 
expected in the nearshore waters of southern Mexico associated 
with this system, especially from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro 
Cardenas. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 19N southward, moving 
westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to 
locally strong rainshowers are from 12N northward between 94W 
and 98W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through NW Costa Rica near 11N86W, 
09N89W and 10N92W, and then it resumes along 15N105W 10N116W 
09N124W. The ITCZ is along 09N124W 08N130W 06N135W beyond 
07N140W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong 
rainshowers are from 05N to 10N between 93W and 98W, from 07N to 
11N between 104W and 112W, within 150 nm NW of the monsoon 
trough between 112W and 120W, within 90 nm SE of the monsoon 
trough between 114W and 119W, and within 180 nm S of the monsoon 
trough and the ITCZ between 123W and 140W. isolated moderate to 
locally strong rainshowers are from 04N to 10N from 90W 
eastward. 

A surface trough is along 133W from 11N southward, embedded in 
the ITCZ. isolated moderate rainshowers are from 08N to 11N 
between 130W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details about 
Tropical Depression Carlotta.

Gentle to moderate winds, and seas ranging from 5 to 7 feet will
prevail elsewhere over the open waters, except locally to fresh
winds within 60 nm W of the Baja California Peninsula through 
the early part of the week.

The Gulf of California: moderate to fresh southerly winds N of 
30N from this evening into tomorrow morning, before diminishing. 
Light to gentle winds elsewhere. Sea heights in the Gulf of 
California: N of 30N will be 3 feet or less into tomorrow 
morning, and ranging from 3 to 5 feet near the entrance of the 
Gulf.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough currently extending from near the Gulf of 
Papagayo to 10N92W will linger during the next few days. Long 
period SW swell will maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of 10N through 
tonight before subsiding. A new and larger set of long period SW 
swell will arrive across the waters W of Ecuador by Thursday, 
with combined seas building to 7 to 9 ft, except in the lee of 
the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate S to 
SW winds will prevail S of the monsoon trough.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Northerly swell, N of 29N W of 125W, is propagating into the 
northern waters, with combined seas building to 7 to 9 feet, 
will be present only for the next 24 hours or so. 

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 15N 
northward from 114W westward. Mainly moderate winds and seas 
less than 8 ft will prevail through the week.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is propagating into the 
southern waters, although combined seas N of the equator are 8 
feet or less for only the next 24 hours or so. This swell will 
decay slowly during the next couple of days. A new and larger 
set of long period SW swell will arrive across the southern 
waters, starting on Wednesday morning as it crosses 03.4S along 
120W, and then it starts to be closer to the offshore waters 
from Costa Rica to the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting late Friday 
night. 

$$
mt


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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Jun-2018 03:42:21 UTC