000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080952
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0910 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N96W to 10N107W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N112W to 05N130W to beyond 06N140W. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 07N 
between 121W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N
to 14N E of 103W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered NW of the area extends a broad ridge 
southeastward over the offshore waters of Baja California and to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between 
the high pressure and lower pressure associated with a
dissipating cold front entering Baja California Norte is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the Baja 
offshores this morning. Seas across this area are in the range 
of 6 to 7 ft in NW swell, except 8 to 9 ft N of Punta Eugenia. 
Inside the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to locally
moderate from the SW N of 28N and from the NW S of 28N. Seas
along the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft, highest at the entrance of the
Gulf. Elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, 
winds are gentle to moderate from the W-NW and seas remain 5 to 
6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the local area will 
shift NE throughout the week. This will lead to the continuation 
of moderate NW winds across the Baja Peninsula waters through 
today, with small areas of locally fresh winds developing near 
the coasts each afternoon and evening, becoming gentle to 
moderate winds Thu through Fri. Fresh NW winds will persist 
across the Baja Norte waters NW of Guadalupe Island through 
today. NW swell will continue to move into the Baja offshore 
waters through the week, with seas in excess of 8 ft persisting 
across the waters north through west of Punta Eugenia through Thu
evening. Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are 
expected elsewhere across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters 
through Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across 
the offshore waters between the Colombian coast and Costa Rica. 
This active weather is likely producing frequent, strong gusty 
winds, and moderate to rough seas. Over the remainder Central 
America offshore waters N of 09N, winds remain light and 
variable and seas moderate to 5 ft in S swell. Between the coast 
of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly moderate 
from the S to SW with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell, except for
moderate SE winds W of 87W.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are 
expected S of 06N through Thu, which will feed into scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms currently E of 103W. This 
active weather will shift slowly westward through Thu. Light to 
gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere along with moderate 
seas in S swell. Otherwise, new southerly swell will maintain 
seas of 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands today through Sun 
night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1032 mb high pressure is centered well offshore of northern 
California and extends a ridge south and southeastward across 
the subtropical waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Gentle to moderate N-NE winds are noted N of 20N between 115W 
and 125W, then become NE to E-NE to the west of 130W. Seas 
across this area N of 20N are 6-9 ft in NW swell. S of 20N, 
between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 122W, moderate to locally 
fresh NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas in NE swell prevail. South of 
the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E winds are noted with 6 to 8 
ft seas in mixed SE and SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
variable winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will gradually diminish to moderate 
speeds through Sun, as high pressure N of the area drifts 
northeastward. Seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected across the area of
trade winds through Sun. NW swell across the Baja California 
Norte waters will build through mid week to produce seas of 8 ft 
and greater, mainly N of 25W and E of 130W today through Thu 
night. The seas there will subside below 8 ft late Thu night, and
to 6 ft or less on Sat.

$$
Ramos