000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270928
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 10N78W to 08.5N87W to 
08.5N107W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N107W to 07N126W to 
beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
from 03.5N to 08N between 80W and 98W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 10N W of 106W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1031 mb center of high pressure located NE of the Hawaiian
Islands extends a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo
Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a 
surface trough over NW and central Mexico is supporting moderate
to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja California waters, as
recently measured by satellite scatterometer. Seas there are 6 
to 9 ft in NW swell. Fresh westerly gap winds continue inside 
the Gulf of California, near the more prominent gaps of the
peninsula. Seas downwind have built to 3-5 ft. Gentle to 
moderate westerly winds are across the remaining Gulf, where 
seas are 2 to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas at
4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell prevail across the remainder 
of the S and SW Mexican offshore waters between Cabo San Lucas  
and Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue across the 
NE Pacific to sustain moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja
offshore waters, becoming locally strong during the afternoon 
and evening hours through Sat. Westerly gap winds across the 
Gulf of California are expected to continue through Sat morning,
then shift to northerly. The high pressure will move east and 
weaken modestly Sun through the middle of next week, leading to 
weakening winds across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will 
build across the Baja waters today, then become reinforced over 
the weekend, with seas building to 8 to 12 ft across the outer 
waters of Baja Norte this morning, and gradually shifting
westward and increasing Sun night through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered tstms prevail across the offshore waters between the 
Galapagos Islands and the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama, and
extend westward to beyond 90W. Fresh easterly gap winds are 
within 150 nm of the coast of Nicaragua and the Gulf of 
Papagayo, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Between the Galapagos Islands
and Ecuador, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are ongoing along 
with seas 5 to 6 ft in S swell. Light to gentle variable winds 
with 4 to 5 ft seas are present elsewhere in S swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds are 
expected across the Papagayo region through Sat morning, then
will remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. 
Moderate N winds across the Gulf of Panama will shift to W to SW 
during the coming days. Gentle to moderate winds with moderate 
seas will prevail elsewhere through Mon before new S swell raises
seas slightly across the regional waters Mon night and Tue.
Looking ahead, a more significant S swell is expected across the
region late in the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1031 mb center of high pressure near 35N144W extends a broad 
ridge SE across the offshore waters of central Mexico. The
associated pressure gradient south of this ridge is maintaining 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 07N to 25N W of 115W, as
recently measured by satellite scatterometer. Seas in this 
region are 7-10 ft in mixed N and NE swell. N of 25N and W of the
Baja California offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate 
from the N to NE, with seas are in the 5-7 ft range in northerly 
swell, except to 8 ft along 120W. Gentle to moderate SE to S 
winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate, cross equatorial S swell 
prevail near and S of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
S of 22N and west of 118W through Tue, occasionally pulsing to 
strong. This will maintain seas at 6 to 9 ft south of the ridge. 
Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are expected north 
of 22N through Mon, with northerly swell offshore of Baja 
California Norte building 8 to 12 ft Sun through Wed, and 
gradually spreading westward to 130W. Little change is forecast 
across the remainder of the waters through early next week.

$$
Stripling