000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat May 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 14N97W to a 1007 mb low pressure situated near 11N105W to 06N120W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 90W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh NW winds north of the Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker. Seas are 5 to 7 ft along the Pacific waters and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Reduced visibilities were noted south of S Mexico due to agricultural fires. For the forecast, the surface ridge over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula along with the trough over NW Mexico will promote fresh NW to N winds over the Pacific north of Cabo San Lucas for the next several days. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue several hundred miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico in association with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it moves slowly westward during the next few days. Looking ahead, large NW swell may impact the waters west of Baja California Norte beginning on Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker across the Central American and equatorial Pacific waters due to a weak pressure gradient over the area. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, the monsoon trough extending along 11-12N will help force scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Central American waters for the next couple of days. Away from the isolated thunderstorms, winds should remain moderate or weaker through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 05N to 20N west of 120W with seas to 8 to 9 ft . A 1007 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 11N105W with fresh SW winds within 120 NM on the SE semicircle. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the basin. For the forecast, little change is expected for the tradewinds during the next several days. While environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable due to nearby dry air, some development of the aforementioned low is possible during the next day or so as it remains nearly stationary. By late this weekend, the low is forecast to interact or merge with a second system to its east, and further development is not expected. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a trough of low pressure near 11N98W (the second system). Development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as the disturbance moves slowly westward during the next few days. Large SW swell should reach near the equator west of 100W later today and continue through Sun. Looking ahead, large NW swell may impact the waters west of Baja California Norte beginning on Mon. $$ GR
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Page last modified: Saturday, 18-May-2024 03:10:50 UTC