921 
AXPZ20 KNHC 011556
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 12N90W to 07N110W to
09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 09N130W to 1007 mb low
pressure near 07N138W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is active within 90 nm either side of monsoon trough between 
100W and 105W and 112W and 117W. Scattered moderate convection is
evident from 08N to 10N between 123W and 128W, and from 06N to
08N between 138W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

An Altika altimeter satellite pass indicated 8 to 11 ft combined
seas west over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, west
of Guadalupe Island. This NW swell associated with strong winds
off southern California, between high pressure over the northeast
Pacific and lower pressure inland. Moderate to fresh winds are
also noted off Baja California. An overnight scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh winds funneling off Cabo San
Lucas. Overnight fresh winds across the northern Gulf of
California are diminishing. Gentle to moderate winds persist 
elsewhere, with moderate seas primarily in NW swell in open
waters. 

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with 
large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west
of Isla Guadalupe into Fri night, with gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere off Baja. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds 
will persist across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate 
combined seas, primarily in NW swell over open waters. Looking 
ahead, winds and seas will begin to diminish off Baja California 
late Thu into Sun as the high pressure NW of the area weakens and
the swell subsides. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Divergent flow aloft is supporting clusters of showers and
thunderstorms along the monsoon trough off western Panama and
southwest Costa Rica, and along the coast of Colombia. Earlier 
satellite scatterometer data suggests winds are light to gentle 
across most of the area waters, except near convection. Seas are 
4 to 5 ft in new S swell, except between the Galapagos Islands 
and Ecuador, where altimeter data shows 6 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure gradient will 
support light to gentle breezes with moderate SW swell through 
the period, with slightly higher swell off Ecuador Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge extends from high pressure centered well north of 
the area, southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge 
is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of 10N and 
west of 120W. Earlier satellite altimeter data confirmed 
combined seas of 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 15N west of 120W. Fresh 
to strong NW to N winds are noted north of 28N between 120W and 
130W, between the high pressure and lower pressure inland. NW 
swell of 8 to 12 ft accompanies these winds. Farther south, a 
1007 mb surface low is moving slowly westward along the ITCZ 
near 07N138W, and continues to produce scattered thunderstorms, 
mainly along the ITCZ with and ahead of it. Divergent flow aloft 
between a middle level trough extending from southern Baja 
California to near 10N140W, and an upper ridge farther east is 
working with low level trade wind convergence to support clusters
of shower and thunderstorms along the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate 
winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell persist 
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern or
resultant conditions are expected through early Fri. Winds and 
seas will diminish Fri into Sat as the high pressure to the 
north weakens ahead of an approaching cold front. Looking ahead,
this cold front is expected to move southward into the northern
waters Sat evening, and reach from Baja Norte to 25N140W by Sun
evening. Moderate NW swell will follow the front.

$$
Christensen