815 
AXPZ20 KNHC 061557
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon May 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1450 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N76.5W to 11N82W to 10.5N103W
to 06.5N112W to 07.5N121W. The ITCZ extends from 08N122W to 
beyond 07.5N140W. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection
is noted from 04.5N to 11.5N between 82W and 113W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 07.5N to 09.5N W of 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered north of Hawaii extends a broad ridge
southeastward over the offshore waters of Mexico to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. A weak cold front is sweeping 
southeastward across Baja California this morning, extending from
NW Mexico across the central Gulf of California, across central 
Baja and Punta Abreojos to near 26N120W. The pressure gradient 
between the high pressure and this weakening cold front is 
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds offshore the peninsula, 
except for locally strong winds NW of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas with 
these winds are in the range of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell. Inside the
Gulf of California, winds are light and variable S of the front,
with seas to 3 ft. N of the front in the north and central Gulf,
moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds are ongoing with seas 3 to 
4 ft. Elsewhere in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters winds are
light to gentle from the W-NW with moderate seas 5 to 6 ft in 
southerly swell.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds just ahead of
a cold front approaching Cabo San Lazaro will continue through 
this morning. South of Cabo San Lazaro, fresh winds will dominate
as the weakening cold front moves southward across the Baja 
California offshore waters and dissipates across Baja Sur and 
the southern Gulf of California today. NW swell with seas 8 to 
10 ft will follow the front across the Baja California offshore 
waters N of Cabo San Lazaro today through Thu. Winds along the 
Baja peninsula will diminish to mainly moderate speeds early Tue 
morning and prevail through Fri night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light variable winds prevail across the Central America offshore
waters, with gentle to moderate offshore winds noted across the
Papagayo region and the Gulf of Panama. Seas across the area are
4-6 ft seas in S swell, except 3 ft near the coast. Between the 
coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to 
moderate from the S to SE with 6 to 7 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, S to SW winds south of 07N will increase to 
moderate to locally fresh speeds from Tue morning through Fri. 
Light to gentle variable winds will be prevalent elsewhere along 
with moderate seas due in S swell. Otherwise, southerly swell
will maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands for 
most of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1029 mb high pressure is centered north of Hawaii near 36N154W
and extends a ridge south and southeastward across the 
subtropical waters, to a cold front moving across central Baja
California that extends to 26N120W where it become ill defined. 
Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are noted between the front 
and 125W, then become NE to ENE to the west of 125W. Seas across 
this area are 5-7 ft in mixed N and NW swell. S of 20N, between 
the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 125W, moderate to fresh NE winds 
and 7-9 ft seas in NE swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to
moderate SE to E winds are noted with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed 
swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will prevail through mid-week. Seas 
with these winds will be 6 to 9 ft, and will subside by Wed. The
cold front will continue to move S-SE and dissipate today. NW 
swell following the front will impact the waters mainly N of 25W 
and E of 130W tonight through Thu night, bringing seas to 10 ft 
over the NE subtropical waters. The swell will subside below 8 ft
by Thu night.

$$
Stripling