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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220327
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Feb 22 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 08N86W to 02N94W to 
02N101W. The ITCZ continues from 02N101W to 07N126W to 08N140W.
No significant convection is observed near the convergence zone. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds and 1 to 3 ft seas will prevail in the 
Gulf of California through Thu. A cold front will reach northern 
Baja Thu evening. Fresh westerly winds are likely to develop 
ahead of the front over the Gulf of California N of 29N Thu night
and Fri morning, then subside Fri as the front moves S and 
weakens. High pressure building NW of the region will then bring
fresh to strong NW winds to the central and southern Gulf of 
California this weekend, with seas building to about 5-7 ft. 

High pressure N of the area will continue to support moderate NW 
to N winds W of the Baja Peninsula accompanied by NW swell of 8 
to 10 ft seas N of 25N overnight. This area of high seas will 
decay through Thu. The high pressure will be reinforced behind a 
weakening cold front on Fri, which will bring fresh to locally 
strong NW winds W of Baja California Norte Fri and Fri night, 
spreading offshore the remainder of Baja California Fri night 
and Sat, with seas building to 8-9 ft.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Northerly winds will briefly increase to 20-
25 kt late Thu night and Fri, with seas peaking at 7-8 ft during 
this short gap wind event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through 
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to near 90W through Mon 
morning, with seas building to 8-9 ft during the overnight and 
early morning hours.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
05N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 05N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure centered N of the area supports a ridge 
that extends SE across the forecast waters to the Revillagigedo 
Islands. This system will be reinforced by stronger high pres 
arriving Fri behind a weakening cold front. The gradient between 
the high and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ will result 
in fresh to strong trade winds across most of the tropical 
waters W of 115W and N of the ITCZ through the upcoming weekend.

Long period NW swell greater than 8 ft dominates the area N of 
09N and W of 110W. Strong high pres building N of the discussion 
area will maintain an area of strong winds and seas to 11-12 ft 
roughly from 10N to 20N W of 120W Fri and Fri night, with the 
area of swell 8 ft or greater expanding S to 06N. This area of 
swell and strong winds will slowly shift westward on Sat and Sun.

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Feb-2018 03:27:51 UTC