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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



690 
AXPZ20 KNHC 151603
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 98W moving west around 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm off the 
coast of Guerrero and Oaxaca, Mexico, and from 12N to 15N 
between 102W and 105W. 

A tropical wave is near 116W moving west at 20 kt. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 115W and 125W.

A tropical wave is near 138W moving west at 20 kt. Isolated 
showers are from 05N to 06N west of 138W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N84W to 11N100W to 
11N113W. The ITCZ extends from 11N117W to 09N130W to 07N138W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring 
from 03N to 09N east of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is 
elsewhere from 12N to 17N between 97W and 105W, and within 210 
nm N of the ITCZ between 117W and 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge west of Baja 
California and a low pressure trough along the Baja California 
peninsula is maintaining moderate N to NW wind flow across most 
of the adjacent offshore waters where seas remain in the 4 to 5 
ft range. Winds and seas off Baja California will remain 
relatively unchanged through Mon morning as the ridge persists 
offshore. However, winds will pulse to fresh speeds near the 
coast during the evening hours through Sun night mainly in the 
region between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. A broad area 
of low pressure will develop along California and across the SW 
CONUS late on Mon, which will weaken the ridge and allow 
offshore wind speeds to briefly diminish through mid week. 

Moderate to fresh S to SE winds are occurring over the southern 
half of the Gulf of California and will persist through tonight. 
Winds of moderate to fresh speeds will then resume along most of 
the gulf Mon morning, however will diminish again to gentle 
speed at night except N of 29N. Long period SW swell will reach 
the Mexican offshore waters late today, but seas are expected to 
remain in the 5-6 ft range through the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong nocturnal offshore winds will continue pulsing 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the middle of next 
week, with seas peaking around 7-8 ft downstream of the Gulf. 
Otherwise, fairly tranquil conditions will persist off Central 
America under a weak pressure pattern. Gentle to moderate S to SW
flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail south
of the monsoon trough through the weekend and early next week. 

Long period SW swell will propagate NE across the southern 
waters today, and seas will build to 8 ft between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. Another round of S to 
SW swell will move into the southern waters Tue night, once 
again resulting in 8 ft seas off the coast of Ecuador. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A high pressure ridge prevails across the northern waters. 
Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the ridge and the ITCZ 
west of 120W. Seas in this region are generally 5-7 ft based on 
the latest altimeter data. Moderate to locally fresh trades are 
expected to persist mainly south of 20N through the weekend and 
early next week as a couple of tropical waves moves south of the 
ridge.

Long period SW swell will continue moving NE across the high 
seas east of 120W this weekend. Seas will remain 8 ft or greater 
south of the Equator through the middle of next week, as 
reinforcing SW swell is expected to reach the far SW waters by 
Mon night. Expect 8-10 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 
100W by Tue. Elsewhere, NW to N swell will impact the far 
northern waters west of 125W Mon night through Wed night with 
seas likely building to 8-10 ft north of 28N.

$$
Ramos


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Page last modified: Saturday, 15-Jun-2019 16:03:24 UTC