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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202053
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1846 UTC Sat Oct 20 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Vicente centered near 14.6N 94.3W at 20/2100 UTC 
moving W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. 
Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 
13N to 15N between 93W and 95W. Isolated moderate to strong 
convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 91W and 
96W. Vicente will continue on a general westward track, weakening
to a tropical depression near 17.5N 103.5W Tue afternoon before 
dissipating Wed afternoon. Refer to the latest NHC 
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC 
for additional details.

Tropical Storm Willa centered near 15.2N 105.8W at 20/2100 UTC
moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Currently numerous moderate to strong convection is observed 
within 75 nm of the center with scattered moderate to strong 
convection noted elsewhere from 11N to 20N between 103W and 110W.
Willa is forecast to reach hurricane intensity later tonight 
near 15.5N 106.3W, and will continue to move on a northwestward 
track the next couple of days while intensifying. Refer to the 
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for additional details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N91W. It resumes from
14N95W to 15N102W. Then resumes from 14N110W to 09N122W. The 
ITCZ continues from 09N122W to 08N127W to beyond 11N140W. 
Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N 
E of 84W and from 07N to 10N between 87W and 90W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N 
between 97W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 116W and 122W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 08N
to 12N W of 134W. 


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

See the Special Features paragraph for details on Tropical 
Cyclone Vicente and recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge will meander across the offshore 
waters from 23N117W to 21N106W through Mon. Gentle NW to N flow 
is expected N of 20N W of 110W through early Tue. The pressure 
gradient is then forecast to tighten, supporting moderate 
northerly flow W of the Baja California Peninsula during the 
middle of next week as large southerly swell propagates N through
the waters W of Baja.

Gulf of California: Light, mostly northerly flow is expected 
through the middle of next week when large southerly swell will
reach the southern approach to the gulf waters. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate southwesterly to westerly monsoonal flow will 
dominate the offshore waters through Sat night. Fresh SW winds
are expected to develop S of 05N E of 90W on Sat night through 
Sun night with seas to 9 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

Refer to the Special Features paragraph above for details on 
recently upgraded Tropical Storm Willa.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge will meander from near 30N135W to 
23N117W through the upcoming weekend. Latest satellite derived 
winds indicate moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and gentle 
to moderate winds S of the ITCZ. The latest altimeter data shows
seas of 7 to 9 ft across the tropical waters S of 20N and W of 
128W. The 7-9 ft seas will shift westward the next couple of 
days, moving W of the area Mon.

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Saturday, 20-Oct-2018 20:54:04 UTC