| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152206
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Dec 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient
over southeastern Mexico resulting from the combination of strong
high pressure over northern Mexico and lower pressure south of 
Mexico is bringing strong gale force northerly winds over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 16 ft. This strong gap wind 
event will continue through Sun night, before diminishing on Mon 
as the strong high pressure over Mexico shifts eastward and 
weakens. Seas with this event will subside to 9 to 13 ft Mon and 
to less than 8 ft on Tue as the northerly winds diminish to 
fresh speeds. Please refer to the latest high seas forecast 
issued under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 for more specific 
marine related details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to 
06N77W to 05N93W, where latest scatterometer data indicated that 
it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N93W to 05N110W to 
08N128W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
10N to 21N W of 112W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

A weak ridge will preavil over the area maintaining light to 
gentle breezes across the area. Northwest swell with seas to 9 
ft will persist in the offshore waters of Baja California 
through Sun. 

A cold front will approach the region Mon bringing a new set of 
northwest swell, with seas from 12 to 16 ft reaching the 
northern coast of Baja California Norte and Guadalupe Island by 
Mon. Swell of 12 to 15 ft will cover the Baja offshore waters to 
the Revillagigedo Islands into mid week. Swell of this size and 
period will present hazardous seas for mariners, cause very 
powerful and dangerous surf along the Pacific reefs and beaches, 
and likely produce areas of modest coastal flooding and beach 
erosion.

Over the Gulf of California, strong high pressure north of region
have been supporting moderate to fresh breezes across the basin.
A mid to upper-level disturbance approaching the area from the 
west may bring a few showers to the central and southern 
portions of the Baja California Peninsula and Gulf of California 
through Sun. Strong high pressure will build N of the area by 
the middle of the week and will support fresh to strong winds 
across the gulf.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo...Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse starting
tonight and persist into early next week as high pressure builds 
north of the area. The gap winds will diminish late Tue night. 
These winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds Wed night. Seas 
with these winds are expected to be 8 to 9 ft. Fresh winds will 
also pulse across the Gulf of Panama and Gulf of Fonseca tonight 
and Sun. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will persist on either side 
of the monsoon trough through early next week, as seas remain in 
the 4 to 6 ft range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A mid to upper-level trough north of about 18N between 115W and 
134W is supporting scattered moderate convection and a surface 
trough. Seas are as high as 12 ft in this area, due to the local 
winds and a component of longer period NW swell. NW swell in 
excess of 8 ft covers most of the area north of 06N and west of 
115W. 

Models suggest that a second and stronger cold front will 
approach the northwest section of the area tonight, and move 
eastward across the waters north of 20N through early next week. 
The main impact will be a new round of NW swell, with combined 
seas in excess of of 12 ft to as high as 20 ft propagating 
across most of the region north of 12N and west of 120W Sun 
through late Mon. 

During the early to middle part of next week, the leading edge 
of this next round of northwest swell will mix with shorter 
period northeast and east swell emerging from the gap wind areas,
and possibly even southerly swell, to create an area of mixed 
seas south of 12N between 95W and 110W.

$$
Ramos

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 15-Dec-2018 22:07:36 UTC