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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241511
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1443 UTC Sat Feb 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern 
Guatemala near at 14.5N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic 
ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 14N 
and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or 
less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter 
volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to 
the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please 
refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall 
advisory.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 03N86W to 01N104W to 02N111W. The 
ITCZ continues from 02N111W to 04N118W to 04N126W to 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N
to 15N between 105W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted elsewhere within area bounded by 10N130W to 19N117W to
19N110W to 09N118W to 10N130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong NW winds across the waters W of Baja California Norte 
will spread southward along the central Baja Peninsula today. 
Strong NW winds across the northern Gulf of California will shift
S across the southern gulf waters this evening. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue 
to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Thu, with seas building to 7 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then 
forecast tonight and on Sun night with fresh winds expected to 
resume on Mon and Tue nights.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1042 mb centered NW of the area near 42N147W
extends a ridge SE to near 16N110W. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ
and west of 122W. The pressure gradient will further tighten
early next week as the high pressure center shifts closer to the
forecast area. This will expand areal coverage of fresh to strong
winds across the forecast waters, with seas building to 8 to 12 
ft across the Pacific waters from 08N to 24N W of 129W by early 
Tue.

Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Monday
night, building seas to 8 to 16 ft seas across the Pacific 
waters north of 22N between 117W and 132W by Tue night.

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Feb-2018 15:11:23 UTC