| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Strong April Gap Wind Event...

Gulf of Tehunatepec Gale Warning: The gale force winds have 
begun to funnel through the Chivela pass and out across the Gulf
of Tehuantepec as of 12Z this morning. As the pressure gradient 
tightens further over southeastern Mexico late tonight, expect
for the present north to northeast 30-40 kt gale force winds to 
increase to 35-45 kt along with waveheights peaking at about 18 
ft. The gradient will slacken just a little by early Sat 
afternoon allowing for the gale force winds to diminish to just 
under minimal gale force, however, a pulse of minimal gale force
winds is expected Sat night before the gradient begins to 
slacken as high pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico weakens 
while shifting eastward. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
response by diminishing to just below gale force early on Sun,
then become light and variable during Sun afternoon. Seas in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will lower to below 8 ft on Sun afternoon. 
The leading edge of the 8 ft seas that will propagate dowmstream 
from the Gulf will reach near 06N between 98W and 105W by early 
Sun, and subside to less than 8 ft on Sun afternoon. Please read 
the Pacific High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFEP2 
and under the WMO header FZPN03 KNHC for more specific marine 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...   

A trough extends from 09N84W to 08N93W to 08N103W, where
scatterometer data from last night indicated the ITCZ begins 
and continues to 06N110W to 05N121W to 05N130W and to beyond 
the area at 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 83W and
89W, and also within 180 nm south of the trough between 94W and
98W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

The pressure gradient associated with a northwest to southeast
oriented high pressure over these waters is allowing for gentle
to moderate northwest winds to continue to the west of Baja 
California. The waveheights in these waters are in the 6-8 ft 
range and will change little through the weekend. A set of
northwest swell producing seas of 7-9 ft is expected to
propagate into the far northeastern part of the area late Sun
night into Mon.

Gulf of California: Fresh to strong southwest winds will begin 
over much of the far northern Gulf of California early on Sat, 
before diminishing on Sat afternoon and beginning again Sat night
into early Sun, diminish Sun afternoon, pulse again on Sun night
before diminishing early on Mon. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Please read the Special Features section
above for a recently started strong gale force wind gap event.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse at 
night, increasing to fresh to strong Sat evening as the pressure 
gradient tightens from southern Mexico to Costa Rica. Strong 
winds downstream will reach 09N and 91W on Sun morning with 
waveheights peaking to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds will continue
to pulse every night through Tue, however seas are expected to 
be below 8 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Mainly variable light to northeast moderate 
winds are expected through early next week. 

Light to moderate wind speeds will prevail elsewhere across the 
waters west of Ecuador through Tue night. The sea heights will 
remain in the range from 6 to 7 ft, in SW swell through midweek.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A high pressure ridge enters the area through 32N135W and 
reaches southeastward to 24N123W and to near 18N115W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
subtropics and tropics will result in moderate to fresh northeast
to east trades over the area from 08N to 13N W of about 137W.
This area of strong trades will expand eastward through the 
Sun, with waveheights peaking to around 9 ft, but may briefly
reach 10 ft at times. The surface trough, that earlier was 
a long a position from near 05N131W to 01N137 was not
identifiable at the surface at 12Z. A surface trough will 
develop along a position from 07N117W to 05N123W to 02N126W per
model boundary layer and surface moisture convergence over 
the weekend. Expect for showers and thunderstorms to be scattered 
to possibly numerous near this trough.

$$
Aguirre

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 19-Apr-2019 16:06:23 UTC