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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262142
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat May 26 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W TO 13N93W TO 06N122W to 
low pres near 09.5N135W 1010 mb. The ITCZ then begins from 
08.5N137W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted surrounding the low pres from 10N to 16N 
between 127W and 136W. Scattered to numerous strong convection 
is from 03N to 09N between 80.5W and coast of Colombia. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N 
between 80.5W and 110W, and from 04N to 08N between 118W and 
128W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A slowly strengthening ridge extends SE into the region from a 
1030 mb high centered near 35N141W to the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds across the offshore waters 
of Baja California will persist through Sun. Seas of 6-9 ft will 
prevail across this area through the weekend then diminish 
modestly Mon and Tue.

Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail 
across the Gulf waters through Sunday, with strong afternoon 
through evening sea breezes recurring along the Mexican 
coastline from Mazatlan to Guaymas through Mon.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh northerly flow across the 
Gulf has shifted light to moderate onshore in recent hours. 
Winds are expected to become variable during the next few days, 
with moderate NW to N winds at night and light SW to S winds 
during the late morning and afternoons.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough is displaced well N of its climatological 
position in response to broad low pressure that has formed over 
the Yucatan peninsula and Central America during the past few 
days, and now extends across the NW Caribbean and into the SE 
Gulf of Mexico. This pressure pattern will persist across the 
regional Pacific waters through at least Tue and support light 
to moderate SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft seas for the waters west 
of Central America.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

NW swell associated with a dissipated frontal boundary will 
remain high enough to maintain seas above 8 ft for the waters 
from 25N TO 27.5N west of 138W through this evening. 

Elsewhere, the ridge building over the north central Pacific is 
producing a modest pressure gradient across the trade wind belt, 
with moderate to fresh winds observed in satellite-derived wind 
data from 08N to 20N to the west of 115W. A 1010 mb low pressure 
center continues across far SW portions near 09.5N135W. A broad 
area of fresh NE winds and seas 8 to 10 ft is evident near the 
low from 11N to 16N between 128W and 135W. The low will weaken 
to a trough overnight as it translates westward. Meanwhile the 
expansive high centered over the central Pacific will shift E 
over the NE Pacific, and maintain fresh trade winds and seas 
from 7 to 9 ft across the trade wind belt through Tue.

$$
Stripling

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Page last modified: Saturday, 26-May-2018 21:42:16 UTC