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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192209
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The next gap wind event over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to commence tonight as a 
strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico reaches the 
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. High pressure building behind the front 
will provide a very tight gradient over the area, and bring an 
increase in winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds 
will rapidly increase to gale force tonight, and reach storm 
force early Sunday. Winds will diminish below storm force Sun 
night, then below gale force on Mon evening. Seas will peak near 
25 ft Sunday during the period of storm force winds. Swell 
generated from this event will produce a large plume of 12 ft or 
greater seas that will extend up to 700 nm SW of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by Mon. Marine interests transiting the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sat night into early next week should be aware of 
this upcoming gap wind event, and take necessary action to avoid 
hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please see 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further 
details. 

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: High pressure will build behind a 
strong cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico tonight. This 
will support another round of strong gap winds through the Gulfs 
of Papagayo and Panama. Winds to gale force are expected in the 
Gulf of Papagayo Sun night into Mon evening with seas building 
up to 14 ft by late Mon morning. Strong winds will pulse across 
the Gulf of Panama Sun night through Tue night with seas 
reaching 10 ft. At the same time, expect fresh to strong winds 
across the Gulf of Fonseca and downstream to 90W. Please see the 
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 for further 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located over
Colombia near 08N75W to 05N79W to 07N85W to 04N95W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N95W to 03N110W to 05N135W to 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 14N 
between 112W and 117W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Please, see special features for more details on the upcoming 
storm force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A Storm 
Warning is in effect.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh north to northwest winds along the 
offshore waters off Baja California combined with long period NW
swell is producing seas of 10 to 14 ft over the waters off Baja 
California. This swell event will bring dangerous surf and large
breaking waves across portions of Baja California through today.
Seas will slowly subside this weekend, falling below 8 ft by 
late Sun night. A new set of NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 11
ft range, will sweep into Baja California Norte offshore waters 
on Mon. This swell will spread across the remainder of the 
offshore waters of Baja California through the middle of next 
week. 

Gulf of California: High pressure over the Great Basin north of 
the area is supporting fresh to strong northwest winds across the
entire Gulf. The strength, fetch and duration of the winds will 
support wave heights to 8 ft in the southern Gulf of California 
today. Winds and seas will diminish on Sun as the high weakens 
and shifts eastward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area 
and the equatorial trough will maintain strong gap winds across 
Papagayo and Panama through early next week. A Gale Warning has 
been issued for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please, see special 
features for more details.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...  

High pressure of 1029 mb is centered near 33N125W. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trade 
winds north of the ITCZ, roughly south of 20N and W of 120W. The 
ridge will weaken Sun, allowing winds and seas to diminish some 
across the deep tropics. Long period NW swell will continue to 
dominate the region, with seas 8 ft or more covering a large 
portion of the waters west of 105W. Seas will slowly subside 
tonight into Sun, falling below 8 ft north of 25N by early Sun 
morning. South of 25N, seas of 8 to 10 ft will persist into next 
week from mixed northwest swell and wind waves generated by the 
trade winds. 

A nearly stationary front will drift SE across the NW corner of 
the area through Sun while dissipating S of 30N. High pressure 
in the wake of the front will bring increasing winds and 
building seas across the west-central waters, and also over the 
offshore waters of Baja California, mainly N of Punta Eugenia on 
Mon.

$$
NR

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Page last modified: Saturday, 19-Jan-2019 22:09:13 UTC