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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



078 
AXPZ20 KNHC 152143
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Aug 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Tropical Storm Lane is centered near 10.6N 124.5W at 2100 UTC, 
moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. 
Peak seas are about 13 ft near the center.  An altimeter pass 
around 1900 UTC just east of the center had maximum seas of 10 
ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
occurring within 120 nm of the center, and widely scattered 
moderate convection is occurring between 120-240 nm from the 
center. Lane is expected to continue to intensify, reaching 
hurricane strength on Thu, and major hurricane status around 
Sat.  The small size - Lane is anticipated to retain gale force 
winds of less than 100 nm radius - will limit the extent of 12 
ft seas during the next few days. See latest NHC forecast/ 
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from the northwestern Caribbean, across 
Central America, and into the Pacific down to about 08N near 
85W.  The wave is well-defined in the 700 mb trough diagnostics, 
but has little discernible surface component.  Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring between 05N-
08N between 82W-88W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from near the Panama-Colombia border 
to 11N115W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
occurring within 180 nm south of the axis between 82W and 88W. 
Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
occuring within 120 nm north of the axis between 95W and 110W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Weak surface ridging extends from around 30N135W to near Islas 
Revillagigedo.  Winds should remain at moderate breeze or weaker 
for the next several days.  No significant gap wind events are 
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  

Long-period S to SW swell of 6 to 8 ft originating south of the 
equator are impacting the Mexico offshore zones from Cabo 
Corrientes southward.  These may be producing very large and 
dangerous surf conditions along the coastlines and outer reefs 
with localized breaking waves building to 15 ft today through 
Thu morning. These swell will gradually be diminishing during 
the next two to three days.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The monsoon trough should remain near 10N during the next few 
days.  Easterly winds north of the trough will be moderate 
breeze or weaker, while southwesterly winds south of the trough 
will also be moderate breeze or weaker.  

Long-period SW swell of 6 to 9 ft originating south of the 
equator are impacting the Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador 
offshore zones.  These may be producing very large and dangerous 
surf conditions along the coastlines and outer reefs with 
localized breaking waves building to 15 ft today through Thu 
morning. These swell will gradually be diminishing during the 
next two to three days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...   

See discussion above for Tropical Storm Lane.

A weak 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 17N137W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed continues within 120 nm of the 
center in the northern semicircle.  Fresh easterly winds are 
likely occurring across the northern periphery of the low 
center, with seas to 8 ft. Building high pressure north of the 
area will maintain this area of fresh easterly winds today, even 
as the low pressure opens into a trough over the next couple of 
days, and reaches 140W tonight. 

Long-period cross-equatorial S southerly swell, in the form of 7 
to 9 ft seas, will propagate N across the tropical waters S of 
20N E of 120W tonight through Thu, and then subside to less than 
8 ft on Thu night. 

$$
Landsea


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Aug-2018 21:43:24 UTC