Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 150925

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
648 UTC Mon Oct 15 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.


The center of newly named Tropical Storm Tara is located near 
17.5N 104.2W at 15/0900 UTC or 90 nm S of Manzanillo Mexico 
nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted in the NW 
quadrant within 120 nm. Tara is nearly stationary, and little 
overall motion is expected during the next day or so. A slow 
westward motion is forecast to begin after mid-week. On the 
forecast track, the center of Tara is forecast to remain near or 
just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
couple of days. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPEP2/WTPZ32 KNHC for more details.

Gulf of California: A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern
Gulf of California today from 15Z until 00Z Tue. Strong to near 
gale force NW winds will rapidly develop N of 27N in response to 
robust high pressure building over the Great Basin of the United 
States. Frequent gusts to gale force are also expected N of 30N, 
with seas building to 9 or 10 ft. These marine conditions will 
persist through Tue, but mainly N of 29N. 


The monsoon trough extends from 16N77W to a 1009 mb low pressure
centered over the SW Caribbean near 14N81W then across Central 
America and SE Mexico to near 17N96W to 17N102W, then resumes SW 
of Tropical Storm Tara at 14N107W to 12N112W to 12N130W to 
beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection
is seen within 45 nm either side of a line from 10N83W to 
15N94W. Scattered moderate and isolated convection is taking 
place elsewhere within 120 nm either side of a line from 09N83W
to 14N95W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
present from 08N to 14N between 98W and 120W, from 06N to 09N
between 120W and 127W and from 08N to 12N between 130W and 137W.



A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters W of Baja 
California Peninsula producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N
winds, and seas generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. Seas are
forecast to increase a foot or so by the end of the forecast 
period as mixed swell generated by Tropical Storm Tara arrive. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Next gap wind event is forecast to start 
early on Wed with seas rapidly building to 10 ft by Wed 
afternoon. This event will be associated with a ridge building
behind a cold front across the eastern slopes of Sierra Madre 
Mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico.


Moderate to fresh SW monsoonal flow will continue across the 
region through Tue, with showers and thunderstorms expected to 
continue along the Pacific coast of Central America. Long period 
cross-equatorial SW swell will maintain 5 to 8 ft seas across the
forecast area during this time frame. By Tue night and Wed, 
marine guidance suggests an increase in winds and seas across the
offshore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala. This appears to be
associated with a broad area of low pressure moving from the SW 
Caribbean into Central America during this time frame. 


A weak ridge surrounding 1019 mb high pres centered near 32N133W
dominates the northern forecast waters producing light to gentle
winds N of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds S of 20N and N of 
the monsoon trough. The next cold front will approach the far NW 
corner of the discussion area by this evening. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds and seas to 9 ft are forecasted ahead of the 
front. The front will reach a position from 30N139W to 27N140W on
Tue, then remain nearly stationary over the NW forecast waters 
on Wed while weakening. Long period NW swell will follow the 
front building seas of 8-10 ft NW of a line from 30N134W to 
22N140W on Wed.

Satellite-derived wind and altimeter data confirmed the presence
of moderate to fresh monsoonal flow from 05N to 13N between 100W
and 110W, and 05N and 10N between 110W and 125W, with an 
associated area of seas of 7 to 9 ft in long period SW swell.


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Page last modified: Monday, 15-Oct-2018 09:26:09 UTC