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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120910
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 12 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the SW 
Gulf of Mexico later today. Unseasonably strong high pressure 
associated with the front will build behind the cold front, and 
induce gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this 
afternoon. Winds will funnel through the Chivela Pass, and are 
expected to peak near 45 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, 
with seas building to near 20 ft during this time. The pressure 
gradient will relax on Wed as the area of high pressure shifts 
eastward, with winds diminishing below gale force on Wed night. 
Another gale force gap wind event is possible across the region 
Fri and Sat. See the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further 
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W from 01N to 12N, moving 
W at around 15 kt. Isolated convection is near the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 125W from 03N to 15N, moving 
W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection 
is noted from 08N to 11N between 124W and 128W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N92W to 09N108W to 
14N118W to 11N128W to 11n140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 82W and 99W, 
and from 08N to 15N bewteen 108W and 116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 

Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec this morning. The next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale 
force gap wind event is expected to begin this afternoon. Please 
see the Special Feature section above for more details.

Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters west 
of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate northerly 
winds, and seas generally 4 to 6 ft. Little change is expected 
through Thu. Strong high pressure building across NW Mexico is 
supporting fresh to strong NW to N winds and 7 to 8 ft seas near 
the entrance of the Gulf of California and farther south between 
Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos. Winds and seas are expected to 
diminish by tonight as the high pressure shifts eastward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate SW monsoonal flow will continue across the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador the 
next several days. Seas will remain in the 4-7 ft range. Large 
seas generated by a strong gale force gap wind event in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec will reach the offshore waters of Guatemala and 
El Salvador tonight, with seas building to 10 to 14 ft in 
northerly swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front approaching the far NW waters will extend from 
30N136W to 26N140W tonight. 8 to 9 ft seas in NW swell are 
expected W of the front. Large long period NW swell associated 
with an intense low pressure system in central northern Pacific 
will reach the NW waters on Thu. Seas associated to this swell 
event will peak near 15 ft over the far NW waters by Thu night.

Looking ahead, a low pressure system is expected to form during 
the next few days several hundred miles south or south-southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some 
gradual development of this system may be possible as it drifts 
slowly northward.

$$
Mundell

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Nov-2019 09:10:35 UTC