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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311501
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1357 UTC Sun May 31 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Heavy rainfall in Central America...

A Central American Gyre is over the eastern North Pacific, with 
the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the 
discussion waters N of the equator and E of 98W, including 
portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Moderate to 
strong winds are noted across much of these waters, with seas in 
the 6-10 ft range. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 
convection is noted across much of these waters, particularly N 
of 10N between 87W and 94W. Areas of thunderstorms are impacting
portions of Central America from Nicaragua northwestward to 
Southern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gyre will move 
slowly northward, gradually encompassing much of Central America 
and southern Mexico within the next 24 hours. Winds around the 
gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture into portions of 
Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next several 
days. This will create a dangerous situation for these areas with
an extended period of active and wet weather, and periods of 
heavy rainfall, through the weekend and into next week, 
especially over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern 
Honduras, western Nicaragua, and portions of southern Mexico E of
Veracruz and eastern Oaxaca. This will bring the potential for 
life- threatening flash floods and mudslides for locations that 
receive the heaviest rainfall, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local weather 
service for more details.

...Tropical Storm Amanda...

Tropical Storm Amanda is embedded within the gyre. Amanda has
moved inland over Guatemala, and centered near 14.7N 90.3W at 
31/1500 UTC moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with 
gusts to 45 kt. As this small system is embedded within the 
larger gyre, the main impacts from Amanda will be to focus 
locally heavy rains near the center. For more on Amanda, please 
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 14.5N92W to low pres near 08N119W
to low pres near 09N131W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted N of 00N E of 87W. Numerous moderate and
scattered strong convection is noted N of 05N between 87W and
97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
04N to 10N between 97W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N W of 130W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre, and embedded TS Amanda.

The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure along the
eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental and the Central
American Gyre is producing gap winds to just below gale force 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The area of high pressure will 
weaken enough to allow winds to gradually diminish below 25 kt by
early Monday. 

Outside of the winds and seas associated to those features, 
fresh to locally strong winds prevail off Baja California Norte 
while fresh winds turn cyclonically off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the 
open waters off Mexico, and in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of 
California.

The Central American Gyre is progressing across the forecast 
waters toward the northern portion of Central America and 
southern Mexico. TS Amanda, embedded within the gyre circulation,
has moved inland over Guatemala. These features are bringing 
active weather over the southern Mexico offshore waters, which 
will continue into early next week. Strong winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will persist through tonight. Elsewhere, high 
pressure will build over the northern waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see the Special Features section for more details on the 
Central American Gyre, and embedded TS Amanda.

Outside of winds and seas associated to the Central American 
Gyre and TS Amanda, moderate to fresh winds prevail N of 02N, 
and gentle to moderate winds S of 02N. Seas are in the 5-8 ft 
range prevail across the area.

The Central American Gyre is progressing across the forecast 
waters toward the northern portion of Central America and 
southern Mexico. TS Amanda, embedded within the gyre circulation,
has moved inland over Guatemala. Hazardous marine conditions 
will prevail over the forecast waters west of Costa Rica and 
northward to Guatemala through early next week, with occasional 
large clusters of thunderstorms, fresh to strong winds, and 
building seas. Elsewhere, long-period SW swell will continue 
propagating across the region through early next week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails across the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and low pressure 
within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh
winds N of the monsoon trough to near 10N and W of 125W. Light 
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. 
Moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough
between 103W and 121W, where seas are 7-8 ft. Light to gentle 
southerly winds prevail elsewhere W of 121W. Seas over the 
discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range.

The area of high pressure will weaken slightlytoday. A surface
low will drift into the far NW portion of the discussion waters
into Monday. The low will weaken into a trough by Tuesday and
dissipate by Wed. High pres will then build it its wake. 

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Sunday, 31-May-2020 15:01:42 UTC