000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua 
near 11N86W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 07N110W to 07N119W. 
The ITCZ extends from 07N119W to 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 
116W and 129W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower 
pressure in Baja California is supporting moderate to locally fresh
NW winds offshore the peninsula. Seas with these winds are in 
the range of 5 to 6 ft within NW swell. In the Gulf of 
California, winds are light and variable S of 30N along with seas
to 2 ft. N of 30N in the northern Gulf, gentle to moderate SW 
winds are ongoing with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere in the S and SW 
Mexican offshore waters winds are light to gentle from the NW 
with moderate seas to 6 ft in mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds N of Cabo San 
Lazaro will increase to fresh to strong speeds this evening 
through early Mon morning. South of Cabo San Lazaro, fresh winds
will dominate as a cold front moves southward across the Baja 
California Norte and northern Gulf of California offshore waters
tonight into Mon. NW swell with seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the
front across the Baja California offshore waters N of Cabo San
Lazaro Mon through Thu. Gentle to moderate speeds are expected 
to settle of the Baja California offshore waters later this week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light variable winds prevail across the offshore waters north of
02N with seas 4 to 6 ft within S swell. South of 02N, gentle to
moderate winds prevail with 4 to 7 ft seas within S swell.
Scattered showers continue across the Costa Rica, Panama and
Colombia offshore waters. 

For the forecast, winds south of 07N will increase moderate to
locally fresh from Mon night through Thu. Light to gentle 
variable winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with moderate 
seas due to a S swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of the 
Galapagos Islands will continue for most of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extends across the northern waters from 30N117W to 
27N140W. Moderate N winds are noted behind the front with seas 6
to 7 ft. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the area and is
influencing the wind flow regime. The pressure gradient between 
the high pressure and relatively lower pressures from southern 
California to the Gulf of California is allowing for moderate to 
fresh N to NE winds N of the ITCZ to 24N, just south of the 
front, and W of 115W. Seas range 5 to 9 ft within mixed swell. 
South of the ITCZ, gentle and moderate winds are noted with seas 
7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will prevail through mid-week. Seas 
with these winds will be 5 to 9 ft and will subside by Wed. A 
weak cold front will continue to move S-SE and gradually weaken 
on Mon. NW swell following the front will impact the waters 
mainly N of 26W and E of 130W by Mon night through Thu, bringing
seas to 10 ft. The swell will subside below 8 ft by Thu night.

$$
AReinhart