000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310932
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 08N. It is 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 120 nm west of the wave axis from 08N to 11N. Some 
slow development of this system is possible through the weekend 
and early next week while it moves slowly westward well to the 
south of the coast of Mexico. It has a low probability of 
tropical cyclone development.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 
10N85W to 09N100W to 08N105W to 09N115W. The ITCZ extends from 
09N115W to 08N125W to 08N132W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of
the ITCZ between 127W and 132W, and within 120 nm south of the 
ITCZ between 132W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 118W and 123W, and within
30 nm of the trough between 86W and 89W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough
over north central Mexico continues to support moderate to 
locally fresh winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Light 
to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion 
waters. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in NW swell off Baja 
California Norte, and to around 7 ft off Baja California Sur. 
Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4-5 ft
range. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. 
Hazy conditions persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico 
and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm 
or less. 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail 
off the Baja California peninsula through early next week. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the open 
waters. Seas will build to 9 ft in long period NW swell off of 
Baja California Norte tonight through Mon. Hazy conditions may 
persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central America. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east gap winds prevail across the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon
trough. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the Gulf of Papagayo, 
and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Hazy conditions continue off the Central 
American coast due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and 
Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5
nm or less. 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen just 
offshore northern Costa Rica and extreme southern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E gap winds are expected across 
the Papagayo region through early Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail for the next several days. Hazy skies
from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central 
America may reduce visibilities over portions of the Central 
American offshore waters the next few days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to
near 20N and W of 120W. Northerly swell is producing seas of 8-9
ft to the waters N of 28N between 118W and 125W. Moderate winds,
and seas of 5-6 ft, are elsewhere N of 20N. Gentle to moderate 
winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail S of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough.

For the forecast, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days. 

$$
Aguirre