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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252100
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1842 UTC Sun Feb 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern 
Guatemala near at 14.3N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic 
ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 
13.5N and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 
nm or less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners 
encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the 
observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-
4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the 
ashfall advisory.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 02N86W to 02N107W to 03N112W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N112W to 09N128W to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 03N 
between 90W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection was noted 
from 08N to 11N between 125W and 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Pacific waters W of the Baja Peninsula: Strong northerly winds 
will develop along 30N on Mon night into Tue. Large NW swell will
propagate through the waters W of the Baja Peninsula California 
on Tue and Wed. Seas will peak near 14 ft N of 28N Tue night 
into Wed before starting to subside through Thu. A fresh set of 
NW swell will move into the waters off the coast of Baja 
California Norte Fri night. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are forecast to increase over the Gulf
Thu night and Fri.

Gulf of California: Winds will increase to a strong SW breeze 
along 30N on Mon night ahead of the next cold front sweeping 
across the northern gulf waters on Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue 
to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Fri, with seas building to 7 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then 
forecast tonight with fresh winds expected to resume on Mon and 
Tue nights.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure of 1041 mb centered NW of the area near 39N148W 
extends a ridge SE to near 20N110W. The pressure gradient between
this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong trades north of the ITCZ 
and west of 120W. The pressure gradient will further tighten 
early this week as the high pressure center shifts closer to the 
forecast area. This will expand areal coverage of fresh to strong
winds across the forecast waters, with seas building to 8 to 13 
ft across the Pacific waters from 08N to 24N W of 129W by early 
Tue.

Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters Monday
night, building seas to 8 to 15 ft seas across the Pacific 
waters north of 22N between 118W and 132W by Tue night.

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Feb-2018 21:01:02 UTC