000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301526
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N95W to 08N105W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N105W to 09N125W, and from 07N131W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 08N between 81W and 84W, from 10N to 12N
between 86W and 88W, and within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ
between 100W and 120W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Recent altimeter satellite passes confirm large NW persists off
Baja California Norte this morning, beyond 90 nm offshore, with
wave heights at least 11 ft west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to
fresh winds continue off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro,
between high pressure north of the area, and lower pressure 
inland. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas persist
elsewhere across the open offshore waters of Mexico, with light 
breezes and slight seas across the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with large NW swell
will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west of Isla Guadalupe
into Sat, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere off Baja. 
Moderate SW winds will pulse to fresh across the northern Gulf of
California Tue night, ahead of a dissipating cold front moving 
into the region. Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds will 
persist across Mexican offshore waters, along with moderate 
combined seas primarily in NW swell over open waters. Looking 
ahead, winds and seas will diminish off Baja California by Sun as
the high pressure NW of the area weakens and the swell subsides. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate SW flow is supporting a few clusters of showers and
thunderstorms across the offshore waters from western Panama to
off southwest Nicaragua. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes 
persist elsewhere across all of the offshore waters zones, with 3
to 5 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is 
expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late 
week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific
waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will continue tonight 
before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional 
waters Tue into Wed. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is 
expected across the region Thu through Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge extends from 1030 mb high pressure centered well north
of the area near 38N137W southeastward to near the Revillagigedo
Islands. The ridge is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds
north of 05N and west of 120W. Recent altimeter satellite passes
confirmed combined seas of 7 to 10 ft from 05N to 25N west of
130W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are noted north of 25N 
between 120W and 130W between the high pressure and lower 
pressure farther east. NW swell of 8 to 12 ft accompanies these 
winds. Farther south, a weak surface trough continues to move 
slowly westward along the ITCZ near 130W, but has also shift west
of its supporting upper trough along 120W. Divergent flow aloft 
between this upper trough and and upper ridge farther east is 
working with low level trade wind convergence to support clusters
of shower and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 100W and 
120W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in 
mixed swell persist elsewhere. 

For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern or
resultant conditions are expected through mid week. Winds and
seas will diminish later in the week as the high pressure
weakens ahead of an approaching cold front. 

$$
Christensen