000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010332
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 09N85W to 04N100W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N100W to 06N130W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 05N to 11N between 110W and
115W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Weak ridging extends across the offshore waters of Baja
California, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds. A
recent altimeter satellite pass indicated combined seas to 8 ft
west of Socorro Island. This is part of a larger area of 7 to 8
ft combined off beyond 120 nm off Baja California Sur which will
subside below 8 ft through early Sun. Moderate to fresh NW winds
are evident over the southern portion of the Gulf of California,
between the ridge and lower pressure over central Mexico. Gentle
breezes are evident farther south, with moderate combined seas 
primarily in SW swell. 

For the forecast, the weak ridging will continue to support 
mostly moderate NW winds across the region north of 20N. Large NW
swell to 8 ft off Baja California Sur beyond 120 nm will subside
later this morning. Gentle breezes and moderate combined seas 
will persist farther south. Looking ahead, winds and seas will 
increase again west of Baja California and at the Gulf of 
California Mon through mid week as another cold front approaches 
the region from the north. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent satellite scatterometer and altimeter derived data 
indicated fresh to strong ENE winds with 6 to 9 ft seas
downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh NE winds 
and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf of Panama. Light to 
gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate S swell prevail 
for the rest of offshore zones.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue to
support fresh to strong easterly gap winds across the Gulf of
Papagayo and Nicaraguan coast through Tue, and fresh NE gap
winds at the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Winds at Papagayo may
peak at near-gale force at night. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through midweek next week. Moderate long-period
southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters the next
several days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A subtropical ridge north of 25N related to a 1025 mb high 
pressure off southern California is supporting a large area of 
moderate to fresh NE to ENE trade winds from 05N to 20N west of 
120W, with 7 to 10 ft combined seas in a mix of local wind waves
and mostly longer- range NW swell. Gentle to moderate N to ENE 
winds with seas at 6 to 7 ft in decaying NW swell are evident 
north of 23N west of 120W. Gentle breezes are noted east of 120W 
and south of 05N, with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed NW and S swell. 
Divergent flow aloft related to a broad upper trough along 120W
is supporting scattered moderate convection from 05N to 11N 
between 110W and 115W. 

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will strenghten further
through Sun and cause trades from 05N to 20N west of 120W to 
become fresh to strong. Looking ahead, a new group of northerly 
swell will enter waters north of 25N starting late Mon night or 
early Tue following another cold front moving into the region.

$$
Christensen