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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101447
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Aug 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 23.7N 120.2W at 10/1500
UTC moving WNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Peak seas are currently near 18 ft. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 22N to 26N between 118W 
and 121W. Howard is forecast to become post- tropical early Thu,
dissipating by early Sat. Please read the latest NHC Public 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and 
Forecast/ Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms 
associated with a broad area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico have 
slowly become more organized overnight. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for continued development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it 
moves west-northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the 
coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical 
cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 5 
days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 85W north of 03N to across 
Costa Rica and into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west at around 
10 kt. Associated convection is described below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 100W north of 01N, moving west
at around 20 kt. Low pressure is expected to form along this
wave, and there is the potential for this area of low pressure to
develop into a tropical cyclone. Please see above for more
information. Associated convection is described below.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N103W to 12N123W to 
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 02N to 08N east of 86W, from 08N to 17N between 91W 
and 106W, and from 07N to 13N between 110W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on a broad 
trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles 
south of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.

Tropical Storm Howard west of the outer Baja California offshore
waters boundary continues to move away from the area while
weakening. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are Offshore Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted in the Gulf of California with seas of 1-3 ft. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, aside from the broad trough of low pressure, 
fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area 
through early Thu. A surge of fresh to strong winds may occur in 
the Gulf of California at night through Thu night along with 
nocturnal convection.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to locally strong winds are in the Papagayo region and 
offshore Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas
are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft southwest of the Galapagos 
Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through
the next several days, pulsing to fresh to strong in the 
Papagayo region through Thu night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on 
Tropical Storm Howard.

Outside of Howard, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the 
waters north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate trades and
seas of 4-7 ft dominate the waters north of the monsoon trough, 
except 3-5 ft north of 26N and west of 126W. Moderate to locally 
fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft dominate the waters 
south of the monsoon trough, except around 8 ft along and just 
north of 03.4S between 100W and 120W.

For the forecast, seas of 3-5 ft will prevail north of 26N and 
west of 126W through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through the week and into the weekend, except 
moderate to locally fresh south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 
around 8 ft will prevail near 03.4S, decaying by the end of the 
week into the weekend. Seas of 4-7 ft will prevail elsewhere.

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 10-Aug-2022 14:47:46 UTC