Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 300929

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure is
forecast to build over the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front Wed
through Thu, and will support gale force winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec by early Thu morning. Strong northerly winds will 
begin across the Tehuantepec region Wed night, and increase to 
gale force from early Thu through Fri morning. Seas will build 
to 8-12 ft during this time. Strong to just below gale force
winds are expected Fri through late Sat morning, before winds
increase again to gale force midday Sat through Sun night. Winds
are then expected to gradually diminish Mon and Mon night. 
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from near 11N74.5W to 11.5N83W to
07N92W to low pressure near 13N114W 1010 mb to 09N125W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N125W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to the coast between
81W and 100W, and from 08N to 09.5N W of 118W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 102W and


Gentle to moderate NW winds prevail across the offshore waters 
of Baja California to Cabo Corrientes tonight. Seas are 6 to 8 
ft in NW swell across the Baja waters north of Punta Eugenia, 
and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere to Cabo Corrientes. Light winds and seas
3 ft or less prevail inside the Gulf of California. Elsewhere
across the remaining Mexican offshore waters, mainly light to 
gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, NW to N swell dominating the Baja California 
waters will slowly subside through Wed night. A strong and 
significant gap wind event will develop in the Tehuantepec region
Wed night, and reach gale force early Thu through Fri morning. 
Winds will then remain strong to just below gale force through 
Sat morning, and increase to gale-force again midday Sat through 
Sun night before gradually diminishing into Mon night. A strong 
cold front is expected to stall across the Baja Norte waters 
around midday Fri and weaken quickly. Accompanying large NW swell
will reach Baja Norte waters Fri morning and build to 10-11 ft 
Fri night before beginning to slowly fade late Sat. High pressure
will build across the Baja region Sun night through Mon and 
freshen the winds across the Baja waters.


Fresh NE winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight
and extend offshore to near 10N80W. Light to gentle variable 
winds prevail elsewhere N of 09N, with seas of 4 to 5 ft. 
Moderate SW to W winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are to the S of the 
trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador
offshore waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 4 to 6 ft. 
Showers and a few modest thunderstorms have diminished in recent
hours across the coastal waters of Colombia, and Panama, but are
lingering within 45 nm of Costa Rica's coast line.

For the forecast, moderate winds and seas will persist S of 09N 
into the weekend as a weak pressure pattern prevails. Fresh gap 
winds over the Papagayo region will persist into the upcoming 
weekend, pulsing to strong each night through Sat night. These 
winds will extend beyond 92W Wed night through Fri, then retract 
to E of 90W Sat afternoon through Sun. 


A 1021 mb high is center across the NE Pacific near 31N132W, and
extends a ridge SE into the area waters, between 110W and 140W. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are
dominating the area N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N and W of
123W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh 
S to SW winds are noted S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough W of 110W. 
Gentle to moderate SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough E 
of 110W. 

For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected 
through morning. A strong cold front is expected to reach the 
far NW waters Thu morning, preceded by fresh to locally strong 
SW winds ahead of it this afternoon into tonight. Behind the 
front, strong to near gale force NE winds are expected as it
sinks slowly southward to along 27.5N by Fri morning. The NW 
swell behind this advancing front will raise seas 15 to 17 ft 
across the far NW waters W of 135W by late Thu. The front is 
expected to reach from 31N120W to 26N140W by Fri morning before 
stalling and weakening considerably by Sat morning.


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 30-Nov-2022 09:29:11 UTC