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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



889 
AXPZ20 KNHC 141604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Six-E is centered near 18.1N 116.6W at 
14/1500 UTC moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with 
gusts to 35 kt. This system remains sheared with scattered 
moderate convection noted within 60 to 120 nm southwest of the
center. The depression is forecast to reach cooler waters in
about 12 to 24 hours. This will allow for it to further weaken,
becoming a remnant low by early on Wed. Please read the latest 
NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave that extends north into the Caribbean
stretches along 84W north of 03N to across central Costa Rica.
It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 04N to 09N.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 98W north of 03N to across 
southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 08N
to 14N between 94W and 99W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 126W from 02N to 19N. It is
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 120 nm east of the wave from 04N to 08N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from near 09N80W to 11N110W to beyond
10N140W. Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves 
and special features sections, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 79W-83W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the
trough between 106W and 112W and also between 119W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low pressure trough over Baja California will lead to fresh to
strong SE winds in the northern Gulf of California through this
afternoon with peak seas of 5 to 6 ft. For waters W of Baja
California, fresh to locally strong NW winds can be expected
into late week.

High pressure building into the Gulf of Mexico Thu and Fri will
likely lead to strong gap winds in and downwind of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec from Thu night into early Sun. While current 
guidance suggest near- gale conditions late Fri, peak seas are 
anticipated to reach around 8 ft due to the limited area and 
duration of these gap winds.

No significant long-period swell are expected in the Mexican 
offshore zones for at least the next several days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region 
through the week, with locally strong winds likely during the 
overnight and early morning hours. Peak seas may approach 8 ft.

Moderate to fresh monsoonal SW winds will prevail over the 
waters S of 10N into late week with peak seas near 5 to 6 ft. 

No significant long-period swell are expected in the Central 
American and equatorial offshore zones for at least the next 
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for details on Tropical 
Depression Six-E. This depression is forecast to weaken to 
a remnant low by early Wed.

Low pressure of 1009 mb near 22N132W will continue to move west 
and be out of the area late Wed. To the northwest, a 1031 mb high
is centered 40N148W, and is ridging SE to offshore Baja 
California. The pressure gradient between the high and low is 
leading to a fairly broad area of strong E winds just north of 
the low, along with seas up to 11 ft. Conditions will only slowly
improve until late week.

Moderate to fresh S winds south of the monsoon trough between 
110W and 120W are combining with some SW swell to produce 
combined seas of 8 to 10 ft. These will progress westward before
diminishing on Fri.

A weak cold front may slide S to around 25N between 120W and 140W
Thu and Fri. The front could be accompanied by fresh north winds
and 8 to 10 ft seas.

$$
Aguirre


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Jul-2020 16:05:12 UTC