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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230358
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Feb 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W inland 
over Southern Guatemala is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may 
reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 14N and E of 
93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 3 nm or less. 
Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter volcanic 
ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the 
National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please refer 
to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall advisory.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica 
at 10N84W to 04N93W where scatterometer winds indicate a 
transition to an ITCZ, which continues W to 03N102W to beyond 
07N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is flaring 
within an area bounded by 10N140W to 18N114W to 15N106W to 
06N137W to 07N140W to 10N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A W to E ridge extends across the area from 23N116W to 14N99W. 
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are observed W of the Baja 
Peninsula with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Strengthening high pressure 
will push fresh to locally strong NW winds, with 7 to 10 ft seas 
W of Baja California Norte by Fri afternoon, with these 
conditions spreading southward to along 24N early Sat before 
beginning to diminish. Associated seas should subside to less 
than 8 ft by early Mon, with another batch of strong NW winds 
and large NW swell arriving at 30N120W early Tue. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: northerly winds will briefly increase to 20 
to 25 kt late tonight through Fri morning before diminishing, 
with seas briefly peaking at 7 to 8 ft during this event. 

Gulf of California:  Light to moderate northerly winds are 
expected across the entire gulf waters tonight into Fri. 
Strengthening high pressure will develop fresh to strong NW 
winds across the far northern waters late Fri, with these 
conditions spreading southward across the central gulf waters on 
Sat. Strong NW winds forecast across the waters S of 28.5N on 
Sat evening, with seas building to 8 ft. The pressure gradient 
will relax on Mon, with winds gradually clocking to S except 
increasing to strong along 30N on Mon night ahead of the next 
cold front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through 
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through this Tue night, 
with seas building to 8 ft as downstream as 10N91W.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh nocturnal N winds are expected across the 
western Gulf of Panama overnight and again on Fri night with 
these conditions extending as far S as 05N80W. Mostly moderate 
nocturnal drainage flow is then forecast on Sat and Sun nights
with fresh winds expected to resume on Mon night.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure well NW of the area will continue to 
support fresh to strong NE trades, and 7 to 11 ft seas, across 
the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 112W 
through the upcoming weekend when the pressure gradient is 
forecast to further tighten. A batch of northerly swell in the 
form of 7 to 11 ft seas, will propagate S of 32N on Fri reaching 
along 22N between 115W and 130W on Sat before beginning to 
subside. 

Strong northerly winds will reach along 32N between 123W and 132W
late Mon and spread S along 27N early Tue.  

$$
Nelson

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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Feb-2018 03:59:13 UTC