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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250946
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Feb 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern 
Guatemala near at 14.3N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic 
ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 
13.5N and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 
nm or less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners 
encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the 
observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-
4425. Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the 
ashfall advisory.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica 
at 09N84W to 02N105W to 02N115W where scatterometer winds 
indicate a transition to an ITCZ, which continues NW to 07N129W, 
then turns SW to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is observed along the ITCZ within 150 nm 
either side of a line from 02N99W to 02N110W and within 240 nm 
of 10N127W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: A W to E ridge extends 
across the offshore waters from 20N116W to 14N97W. Moderate NW 
to N winds, with 5 to 8 ft seas, are observed this morning.
Expect the seas to gradually subside to less than 8 ft by this 
evening. Another round of NW swell in the form of 7 to 10 ft 
seas will reach 30N120W on Mon morning, with fresh to strong NW 
winds arriving on Mon night. Expect fresh NW winds and 8 to 14 
ft seas N of 24N on Tue night, and moderate N winds and 7 to 10 
ft seas w of the entire Baja Peninsula on Wed night. Expect the 
seas to subside to less than 8 ft briefly on Thu, with another 
round of NW swell reaching 30N120W on Fri morning.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle onshore flow expected during the 
daylight hours with gentle offshore during the overnight hours 
through Mon. Moderate to locally fresh northerly drainage flow 
forecast on Mon night. Model guidance is suggesting the next 
strong event will occur on thu night.   

Gulf of California: Strong NW winds currently across central 
gulf waters between 24N and 28N will diminish to a fresh breeze 
just after sunrise this morning. The pressure gradient will 
quickly relax this afternoon through Mon, with gentle winds 
gradually clocking to S by Mon evening, then increasing to a 
strong SW breeze along 30N on Mon night ahead of the next cold 
front sweeping across the northern gulf waters on Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue 
to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Fri, with seas building to 7 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then 
forecast tonight with fresh winds expected to resume on Mon and 
Tue nights.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure well NW of the area will continue to 
support fresh to locally strong NE trades, and 7 to 11 ft seas, 
across the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 
115W with the pressure gradient is forecast to further tighten 
on Mon. Expect a strong NE breeze, with 8 to 12 ft seas, across 
the Pacific waters from 08N to 24N W of 129W by early Tue. Model 
guidance indicates that the pressure gradient will begin to 
relax on Thu. 

Northerly swell, in the form of 6 to 9 ft seas, will continue to 
propagate S across the waters from 28N to 32N between 120W and 
127W through Mon. Around round of strong northerly winds will 
reach along 32N between 120W and 130W on Mon evening. These 
winds will diminish to a fresh N breeze on Tue, but expect 8 to 
15 ft seas across the Pacific waters from 22N to 32N between 
117W and 130W on Tue night, with the seas quickly subsiding on 
Wed.

$$
Nelson

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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Feb-2018 09:47:04 UTC