000
AXNT20 KNHC 061737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon May 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa. The ITCZ 
extends eastward from 10N16W to 02N30W and to 01N50W. Scattered 
moderate convection is observed south of 06N along both
of these features.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic extends 
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE-E winds are 
occurring off Yucatan and the NW Gulf, while moderate to locally 
fresh easterly winds are found in the rest of the western half 
of the Gulf and the Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 5 
to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail in the rest of the basin.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident 
in the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from NE Mexico into the
southern U.S. Plains will continue to draw in mainly fresh SE 
winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night. Locally strong 
winds will pulse nightly Tue through late week off the northern 
and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to agricultural fires in 
southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and west-central Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent upper level trough continues to enhance the
development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially in
the afternoon and evening hours, across the Greater Antilles and
surrounding waters. The trough will gradually weaken and move 
farther northeast of the area, but atmospheric conditions will 
remain favorable for convection capable of producing gusty winds 
and frequent lightning early this week. Locally heavy rainfall 
continues to bring a threat of flooding in the islands. See local
weather advisories for more information. 

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the central and 
eastern portions of the basin, Lee of Cuba, and Gulf of 
Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the overall weather pattern will prevail into 
mid-week. Late this week, SE winds will increase to fresh in the 
Gulf of Honduras and adjacent NW Caribbean. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1024 mb high pressure centered between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda
dominates the SW North Atlantic west of 55W. Moderate to locally 
fresh easterly winds are noted south of 24N and west of 60W. Seas 
in the area described are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate 
or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

Farther west, a cold front extends from 31N33W to 20N50W.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are evident ahead of the front 
to 25W and north of 25N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Behind 
the front to 55W and north of 26N, moderate to fresh westerly 
winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. 

The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by
a weak high pressure centered near Madeira. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh 
to locally strong northerly winds north of 20N and east of 21W, 
with the strongest winds occurring offshore southern Morocco. Seas
are 4-7 ft in these waters. Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, 
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered off the 
Carolinas will continue to support moderate to fresh E winds 
south of 24N through tonight. These winds will diminish as the 
ridge shifts southward to 28N through mid week. Meanwhile, large N
swell associated with low pressure well north of the region over 
the north central Atlantic will move through the waters north of 
27N and east of 60W tonight into Tue night. Looking ahead, expect 
moderate to fresh SW winds off northeast Florida starting Wed 
night as the high pressure shifts southeast ahead of a cold front 
moving off the Carolinas.


$$
Mora