000
AXNT20 KNHC 272139
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Apr 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

West Atlantic Gale Warning: The National Weather Service in Miami,
FL has issued a GALE WARNING for coastal waters off of SE
Florida. 20 to 30 kt winds with gusts to 35 kt and 6-9 ft seas are
expected through 1500 UTC Sunday. For more information, please 
see local products at www.weather.gov/mfl and the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N15W to 04N20W. The ITCZ 
extends from 04N20W to 02N24W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is found south of 05N between 10W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong pressure gradient between 1034 mb high pressure centered
just offshore New York City and Boston and lower pressure over 
the Great Plains and Mexico is providing for fresh to strong SE 
winds across the Gulf of Mexico. In response to these winds, seas 
have built to 8-11 ft across the western Gulf of Mexico, and 6-8 
ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds will continue
over much of the Gulf through Sun night before diminishing. Seas 
will peak near 11 ft in the NW and central Gulf through Sun. 
Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan 
Peninsula each evening through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extending west to east across Hispaniola and an 
upper-level trough over the western Atlantic are producing 
scattered showers and isolated tstorms across Hispaniola, Puerto 
Rico and surrounding waters. Heavy rains and flooding have been 
occurring in Hispaniola during the last week. While there is 
still a risk of localized flooding, the threat of heavy rain 
appears to be diminishing. Please refer to bulletins from your 
local or national meteorological service for more details. 
Scattered showers are also noted in the far SW Caribbean, mainly S
of 12N, due to the Equatorial trough.

Strong NE winds are occurring in the Windward Passage, off the
coast of SE Cuba and possibly near Jamaica. Strong E winds are
also likely occurring near the N coast of Honduras. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are elsewhere west of 70W, with gentle to
moderate E of 70W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft E of 70W and 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere, except 6 to 8 ft from Jamaica to the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the western Atlantic 
will support fresh to occasionally strong winds in the Gulf of 
Honduras, the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of 
Hispaniola through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh 
easterly winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Northerly 
swell will bring seas of 8 ft through the passages in the NE 
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N54W to 23N65.5W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are north of 30N along and E of the front. North
and west of the front, NE winds are fresh, including across the 
Bahamas and Straits of Florida. Within the Windward Passage, 
winds are at strong speeds. These winds across the W Atlantic 
waters provide for 6-8 ft seas north of 20N and west of 55W,
except 9 to 10 ft north of 29.5N between 61W and 68W. 1011 mb low
pressure is near 18N44W. A surface trough east of the Leeward
Islands and an upper-level trough are inducing scattered showers
from 18N to 25N between 46W and 67W. Most of the remainder of the
tropical Atlantic is experiencing moderate or weaker winds and 
5-7 ft seas. The exception is in the far eastern Atlantic, where 
some fresh NE winds are observed east of 30W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft 
are noted north of 29N and east of 25W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front from 29N55W to N of 
Puerto Rico will move E before stalling and weakening over the far
southeastern waters late Sun through Mon night. Fresh to strong 
north to northeast winds will prevail N of 28N behind the front to
65W tonight through Sun, with seas building to 12 ft over the
waters north of 29N between 55W and 63W by early Sun. Fresh to 
strong winds will prevail over the waters S of 25N and W of the 
front through Sun. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere 
into early next week. More tranquil marine conditions are expected
afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.

$$
Hagen