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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 231201 AAA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATE
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2019

UPDATE FOR T.S. KAREN

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Karen, 23/1200 UTC, is near 14.2N 
64.4W. Tropical Storm Karen also is about 195 nm/360 km to the 
WNW of St. Vincent, and about 210 nm/390 km to the S of St. 
Croix. Karen is moving NW, or 320 degrees, 7 knots. The 
estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. The maximum 
sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends 140 nm SW 
quadrant from 11N-13N between 64W-66W. On the forecast track, 
the center of Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea 
through tonight. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or 
over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Some fluctuations in 
strength will be possible during the next 48 hours due to strong 
upper-level winds. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 27.8N 67.7W at 23/0900 UTC 
or 355 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum 
central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt 
with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong 
convection prevails 200 nm in the NE and SE quadrant, from 25N-
30N between 63W-68W. Scattered showers extend out 400 to 420 nm 
on the NE and SE quadrant. A turn to the north is expected 
Monday night followed by a turn to the northeast on Tuesday. On 
the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near 
Bermuda by Tuesday night. Gradual weakening is expected during 
the next few days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details. 

Tropical Depression Thirteen is located in the far Eastern 
Atlantic at 23/0900 UTC. T.D. Thirteen is located near 10.8N 
22.2W or 315 nm SSE of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, 
moving W at 13 kt.
Estimated minimum pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds of
30 kt with gust to 40 kt. A motion toward the west-northwest is 
expected tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center 
of the depression should pass well to the south of the Cabo 
Verde Islands today and tonight. Strengthening is forecast 
during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to 
become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday 
night or early Wednesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory 
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 35W from 21N southward 
is moving W at 10 kt. Model diagnostics depict this wave well. 
Scattered showers and tstorms are noted along the wave axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W 
to a 1007 mb low near 10N20W to 06N37W to 07N42W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N43W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection 
mentioned in the sections above, scattered showers and tstorms 
are seen approximately 200 nm on either side of the boundaries. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf of Mexico,
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered in the western Atlantic. This
feature is keeping east to southeast surface flow across much of 
the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the west 
Atlantic across the Bahamas, to the Florida Straits near 24N80W 
to the eastern Gulf near 23N86W. Scattered moderate convection 
is seen along the boundary. In the western Gulf, scattered 
showers and tstorms are present from 22N-26N and west of 92W-
95W. ASCAT data depicts fresh to strong NE to E winds over the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico north of the front mainly east of 81W 
from 23N- 29N. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds 
prevail elsewhere across the basin. 

Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft will still be 
possible in and near the Straits of Florida through the early 
morning. These winds and seas will gradually improve as the 
pressure gradient between high pressure to the N and lower 
pressure associated with a frontal trough across the Straits 
weakens. New high pressure will develop along the northern Gulf 
tonight, then will slowly lift N by the end of the week. 
Otherwise, a weak NW to SE trough will extend from the W central 
Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula through much of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for information on Tropical Storm 
Karen in the SE Caribbean. 

A surface trough extends from the west Atlantic across the 
Bahamas, to the Florida Straits near 24N80W to the eastern Gulf 
near 23N86W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen south of
Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and eastern Cuba. Scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle winds across most of the basin, except 
the eastern Caribbean near T.S. Karen.

Karen will change little in intensity as it moves 26.5N 65.5W 
early Fri, and continue to 27.0N 67.0W early Sat. Otherwise, a 
fairly weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds and 
low seas will prevail across the western and central Caribbean 
through Thu, with more typical conditions and trades returning 
by the end of the week as high pressure builds N of the area in 
the wake of Karen. A tropical wave may reach the Tropical N 
Atlantic waters by the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and
Tropical Storm Jerry. 

A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N43W to 27N59W.
Surface trough is analyzed west of T.S. Jerry and extends from 
26N73W across the Bahamas to 24N78W into the Gulf of Mexico. 
Scattered moderate convection is seen 100 nm of the cold front 
and scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the trough. 
Further east, a stationary front pass through the Canary Islands 
near 31N09W to 28N19W to 27N26W. No significant convection is 
noted with the front.

Jerry will change little in intensity as it continues farther 
N-NE away from the basin. Tropical Storm Karen near 13.6N 63.9W 
1007 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 
kt gusts 45 kt. Karen will move to 14.5N 64.6W this afternoon, 
16.1N 65.2W Tue morning, 18.0N 65.6W Tue afternoon, 20.1N 65.5W 
Wed morning, and 24.6N 64.9W Thu morning. Karen will change 
little in intensity as it moves 26.5N 65.5W early Fri, and 
continue to 27.0N 67.0W early Sat. 

$$
mmt/mt

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Sep-2019 12:02:16 UTC