Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 211052

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.


....Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1009 mb low is centered over the western Atlantic near 29N68W. 
A Gale Warning is in effect over forecast waters N of 30N between 
65W-72W with seas 12-15 ft. These conditions will continue until 
21/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center under the AWIPS/WMO header 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 10N14W to 
02N21W. The ITCZ continues from 02N21W to 01S30W to the coast of 
South America near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 
07N-06S between 00W-25W. Scattered showers are from 00N-03S 
between 25W-38W. 


As of 21/0900 UTC, a 1023 mb high is centered over central Texas
near 31N98W. A cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from S
Alabama near 30N88W to S Texas near 27N97W. The front is void of
any precipitation. Surface ridging is over the remainder of the
Gulf of Mexico. 5-15 NE to E winds are over the Gulf with weakest
winds around the high and strongest winds over the Straits of 
Florida. The W Gulf W of 92W and S of 27N has broken low clouds. 
Scattered showers are over the SW Gulf. In the upper levels, a 
broad ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with strong subsidence. 

High pressure along the SE Texas coast extends SE to the NW 
Caribbean, and will dominate the Gulf region through Mon as the 
high slides slowly E. This pattern will produce mainly a moderate 
to locally fresh wind flow, except off the W coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula where late evening local effects will produce brief 
periods of NE winds to 25 kt. 


A cold front extends from E Cuba near 22N77W to Honduras near
16N85W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. 15-20 kt
northerly winds are over the NW Caribbean N of the front. 10-20 
kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean. Scattered 
showers are over the Leeward Islands, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Costa 
Rica, W Panama, and NW Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is
over portions of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a large ridge 
is over the Caribbean and Central America with axis along 82W. 
Strong subsidence covers the entire area. 

Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night within 60 nm
off the coast of Colombia. The cold front will stall this morning
and gradually weaken through late tonight when it is forecast to 
dissipate. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate across the 
remainder of the basin through Mon. 


A Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. Refer to
the section above for details. A 1009 mb low is centered over the
western Atlantic near 29N68W. A cold front extends SW from the low 
to the southern Bahamas to Cuba near 21N77W. Isolated moderate 
convection is from 27N-31N between 64W- 69W. Scattered showers are
also over the S Bahamas. Surface ridging is over the central and 
eastern Atlantic N of 15N and E of 55W. 

The W Atlantic low will dissipate tonight NE of the area, and the
front will stall. However, a reinforcing cold front will merge 
with the stationary front on Fri and move E of the area by Sun 
morning. Swell generated by these fronts will dominate the waters 
E of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend. 

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Thursday, 21-Mar-2019 10:52:28 UTC