Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 221221 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

Corrected Gulf of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC. 


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient 
continues to exist, between comparatively higher surface pressures
in the western Atlantic Ocean and lower surface pressures in 
northern sections of South America. This pattern is supporting 
winds reaching gale force strength from 10.5N to 13N between 
73.5W and 77W. Waveheights within the area of gale force winds 
will range from 12-14 feet. These winds are forecast to diminish 
below gale force on Fri. Please read the latest NHC High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more 

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is 
forecast for the areas: IRVING and METEOR. The OUTLOOK, for the 
24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 23/0000 
UTC, consists of: the threat of NW near gale or gale in IRVING
and in METEOR. 


The monsoon trough axis extends from  the coastal sections of 
Guinea near 10N14W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, 
crossing the Equator along 24W, to 02S27W, and to 03S33W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen S of 05N 
between 26W and 38W. Isolated showers are possible elsewhere S of
10N and E of 60W.


GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

A weak cold front that moved into the far NW Gulf during the
overnight hours is along a position from near the Texas/SW 
Louisiana border to a 1019 mb low at 27N96W and to inland the 
far NE coast of Mexico as of 09Z this morning. Isolated showers 
and thunderstorms are along and NW of the front and low per 
latest NWS radar imagery. The cold front is forecast to become 
stationary before lifting back N as a warm front today. A weak 
cold front is expected to drift into the far NW Gulf on Sat 
night, then become stationary. The gradient associated with 
strong high pressure that extends from the western Atlantic to 
over the eastern and central gulf waters will maintain fresh 
east to southeast winds to the E of the front and low, with the 
exception of strong east winds across the Straits of Florida 
through tonight before diminishing to mainly fresh winds on 
Friday as the ridge weakens.


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details regarding
the Gale Warning that is in effect for the waters near the coast 
of Colombia.

Strong surface high pressure across the NW Atlantic Ocean will 
dominate the region, settling across the Bermuda area through Sat.
Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea
and the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean today, with nocturnal winds 
expected to pulse one more night to gale force winds off the 
coast of Colombia. Surface high pressure will weaken through the 
weekend leading to diminishing winds and seas.


An upper level trough extends from an upper low dropping southward 
N of the area at 34N28W through 32N29W to 24N38W, then continues
as a cyclonic shear axis to 23N46W to 21N56W and to the NE
Caribbean Sea. The trough supports a cold front that is along
a position from 32N23W to 21N29W, and as shear line to 18N49W to 
17N58W and to the eastern Caribbean Sea at 17N71W. Broken low 
level clouds with isolated showers  are to the NW and N of the 
line that passes through 32N22W to 23N26W, to 16N40W 15N60W, and 
to 15N73W in the Caribbean Sea.

A West Atlantic Ocean surface ridge will persist along 33N-34N 
through Thursday, and then drift SW and weaken slowly through 
the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N, 
with fresh to strong winds S of 25N through Thursday. NNE swell 
will move through the waters that are to the E of 65W through 
Friday night. It is possible that a weak cold front may move off 
the NE Florida coast early next week.

For additional information please visit 


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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Feb-2018 12:22:10 UTC