Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 200000

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC. 


Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A tight surface pressure gradient 
continues between high pressure in the western Atlantic and 
lower pressure in northern sections of South America. This 
pattern supports winds pulsing to minimal gale-force near the 
coast of Colombia each night through the week. Wave heights 
within the area of gale force winds will range between 12-16 ft. 
Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 
08N13W southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ crosses the equator 
near 21W and remains south of the discussion area to the coast 
of South America. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N 
between 11W-30W.



A surface ridge extends westward across the entire basin from 
the west Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate 
southeasterly winds across the whole area. Satellite imagery 
shows isolated shallow convection in the SE Gulf and mostly 
clear weather elsewhere. Expect increasing winds and building 
seas through Wed as high pressure strengthens in the western 
Atlantic. A thermal trough will develop over the western Yucatan 
Peninsula each evening through mid week, drift westward across 
the Bay of Campeche during overnight hours, then dissipate in 
the SW Gulf by late morning.


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about 
a Gale Warning in effect near the coast of Colombia.

A tight pressure gradient across the basin created by the
combination of a high pressure over the Atlantic and lower 
pressure over NW Colombia is producing strong east winds between
70W-80W, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. The 
high pressure will strengthen overnight into Wednesday, and 
increase winds and build seas east of 80W in the Caribbean and 
the Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week.


A broad area of high pressure centered north of 30N prevails 
across the basin. A weakness in the ridge is noted as a surface 
trough that extends from 31N43W to 26N50W. A cold front has 
pushed southward to roughly along 29N between 50W-65W, then it 
becomes stationary as it extends northwestward to coastal 
Georgia at 31N80W. Scattered low clouds are observed along the 
frontal boundary. The front will become stationary overnight and 
dissipate early Tuesday. The existing area of high pressure will 
be fortified by a stronger subtropical high through mid-week.

For additional information please visit 



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 20-Feb-2018 00:00:44 UTC