Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 232209

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.


A tropical wave axis is near 90W and from 20N southward, moving 
westward at 10 kt. Active convection is noted N of 15N within 180
nm east of the wave axis 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near 
12N15W to 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 05N46W to 
02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 
04N-10N between 20W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
03S-08N between 43W-51W. 


A cold front extends from south Florida near 26N81W to 25N97W. A
surface trough is noted over the SW Gulf near 23N96W to 19N94W. 
Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the eastern Gulf. Moderate
winds prevail over the western Gulf, except in the vicinity of
the trough where light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the
3-5 ft range.

The cold front will continue moving southward and quickly weaken
across the basin tonight. High pressure builds in the wake of 
the front. Fresh southerly return flow will set up over the 
western Gulf tonight through Tue night ahead of the next cold 
front forecast to reach the northern Gulf late on Wed, then stall
and lift northward Thu. Looking ahead, a third and stronger cold
front is expected to move across the Gulf waters over the 


Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the NW Caribbean. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the Caribbean, except
for the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted in the
vicinity of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in
the E Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

A cold front in the western Atlantic will continue moving SE 
across the basin while weakening. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. As ridge builds, winds and seas across the 
south-central Caribbean will begin to increase late Tue through 
Thu. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Windward 
passage and south-central Caribbean Tue night through Thu night. 


A cold front extends from 32N73W to S Florida near 27N80W. Fresh
to strong winds are noted west of the front. Low pressure of 
1010 mb is centered along a trough near 27N69W. Scattered showers
are noted E of the trough north of 22N between 57W and 67W. Fresh
to strong winds are noted east of the trough N of 22N between 64W
and 68W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere west of 65W.
Seas are in the 6-9 ft range over the open waters west of 65W.
Farther east, a surface trough extends from 32N28W to 21N31W.
Fresh to strong winds are noted within 240 nm west of the trough
axis north of 25N. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, 
prevail elsewhere east of 65W. 

The cold front will continue to move southeast across the basin 
tonight into Tue. A persistent surface trough extends from the 
Turks and Caicos Islands toward Bermuda ahead of the front, 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance
is expected to move northeastward, and there is a slight chance 
that it could acquire some subtropical characteristics before it 
merges with a cold front on Tuesday.


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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Nov-2020 22:10:08 UTC