000
AXNT20 KNHC 282333
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 25W, south of 
13N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is observed from 02N to 10N and between 23W and
34W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic along 52W, south of 
12N, moving westward at 20 kt. A few showers are seen near the
trough axis.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea, along 77W, south
of 21N, extending from eastern Cuba to off NW Colombia. The wave
is moving westward at 10-15 kt. This system continues to enhance
the shower and thunderstorm activity over parts of Hispaniola and
regional waters. Moisture associated with this wave will spread 
into Jamaica and eastern Cuba through at least Wed. The storm 
activity may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rain. Please 
refer to your local weather office for more specific information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 05N30W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 06N50W. No deep convection is
noted outside of the activity discussed in the Tropical Waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front stretches across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Divergence
aloft sustains a line of showers and thunderstorms affecting the 
offshore waters of SE Texas and SW Louisiana. These storms are 
producing heavy downpours, gusty winds, frequent lightning 
strikes and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to use 
caution.

The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge positioned over the NW Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE-E winds
and seas of 2-4 ft are present off Yucatan, especially south of
24N and between 86W and 92W. Fresh to locally strong easterly
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the NW Gulf. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires in Mexico and Central
America persist across most of the western Gulf, including the 
Bay of Campeche as seen on recent satellite imagery. Visibilities 
are 3 nm or less across many observing sites along the SW and 
western Gulf coast.

For the forecast, strong thunderstorms are moving off the Texas and
Louisiana coast. These storms are producing frequent lightning,
gusty winds and locally rough seas. Outside of those storms, weak
surface ridging will continue to dominate across the Gulf through
Sat. As a result, winds will pulse moderate to fresh this evening
through the weekend. A weak cold front will move across the far 
NE Gulf tonight, followed by gentle W to NW winds. Otherwise, 
fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the N and W portions
of the Yucatan peninsula during the late afternoons and at night 
for the next several days. Haze west of 89W due to agricultural 
fires over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least 
the next couple of days, impacting visibility at times. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the 
tropical wave currently moving across the central Caribbean Sea. 

A persistent upper-level trough is found stretching into the 
western Caribbean and Central America. This feature continues to 
transport abundant tropical moisture northward from the SW 
Caribbean across Hispaniola and into the Atlantic, enhancing 
convection across the area. An area of numerous showers and 
thunderstorms continues to affect the SW Caribbean. This 
convective activity is reaching the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa
Rica and Panama and also impacting San Andres and Providencia
Islands. Strong winds with gusts to gale-force are likely in 
association with the strongest convection. Hazy conditions persist
over the Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires over northern
Central America. Visibilities may decrease below 3 nm at times in
the Gulf of Honduras, especially close to the coast. 

High pressure north of the Greater Antilles is supporting fresh to
locally strong easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean, with the highest winds occurring in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly breezes and seas of 3-5 ft are noted in the rest of the
central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda
High north of the area and low pressure along near Colombia will 
force fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and Gulf
of Honduras through Wed. Winds will become moderate to fresh from 
Thu through the weekend. A tropical wave currently over the 
central Caribbean is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms
in the western basin as it moves slowly westward during the next 
couple of days. Smoke from agricultural fires over Central America
is causing reduced visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are noted between the coast of Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. Please, read the Tropical Waves section for more
details. 

A weak surface trough is noted near eastern Florida, producing a
few showers and thunderstorms. Farther east, another surface
trough is analyzed from 31N48W to 21N59W, generating a few showers
near and to the east of the trough axis. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are noted west of the surface trough to 57W and north of 
29N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Mainly moderate easterly
winds and seas of 3-5 ft are present south of 24N and west of 60W.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in
the rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W.

A broad ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic 
forecast waters, anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure system 
located SE of Nova Scotia near 44N52W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result
in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 20N and
west of 35W. Seas in the area described are 4-7 ft. Moderate to
fresh NE-E winds are evident south of 24N and east of 35W, along
with seas of 4-7 ft. The strongest winds are found between the
Cabo Verde Islands and Mauritania. In the rest of the basin,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1029 mb Bermuda High is contributing
toward moderate or lighter winds across the basin. The moderate 
winds are due to a weak cold front forecast to emerge from the SE 
United States coast tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
will accompany the front. The front will move eastward toward the 
Greater Antilles later this week and into the weekend, bringing 
moderate to fresh winds. Otherwise, winds and seas away from the 
thunderstorms should remain quiescent for the next few days across
the forecast waters.

$$
Delgado