| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 220534
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 22 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Epsilon, at 22/0300 UTC, is near 29.6N 
60.6W. This position is also about 270 nm/500 km to the SE of 
Bermuda. EPSILON is moving toward the WNW, or 285 degrees, 07 
knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. The 
maximum sustained wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 
kt. Tropical storm-force winds are within 300 nm of the center 
in the N semicircle, and within 120 nm to 150 nm of the center 
in the S semicircle. The sea heights of 12 feet or greater are 
within 480 nm of the center in the NW and SE quadrants, and 
within 680 nm of the center in the NE and SW quadrants. The 
maximum sea heights are reaching 38 feet.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm of 
the center in the NE quadrant, and from 27N to 30N between 46W 
and 51W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated 
strong is within 300 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, and 
within 460 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Please read the 
latest NHC Public Advisory, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the 
Forecast/Advisory, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 16N 
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots.  Precipitation: 
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is 
within 200 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 275 
nm to the west of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 19N 
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: 
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm on either 
side of the tropical wave, from 09N 13N. Isolated moderate is 
from 16N to 20N between 48W and 53W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal, 
along 14N, curving to 12N20W. The ITCZ is along 06N/08N between 
13W and 36W, and from 05N39W to 02N48W. Precipitation: scattered 
to numerous strong from 08N to 10N between 43W and 47W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the 
south of the ITCZ between 24W and 29W. Isolated moderate to 
locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough is on top of Florida. The GFE model for 
250 mb and for 500 mb show this trough. The same trough was in 
the eastern Gulf of Mexico 24 hours ago. Precipitation: 
Rainshowers are possible in Florida. Broken to overcast 
multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely scattered moderate 
are from 70W westward. NE-to-E winds, 15 to 20 knots, are in the 
Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and 20N northward from 70W westward. 
Abundant moisture is in the same region also.

Fresh to strong easterly winds will continue in the eastern Gulf 
of Mexico overnight. Fresh easterly winds will persist in the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday. A weak cold front will 
move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, reach from central 
Florida to southern Texas on Saturday night, and then stall and 
dissipate on Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 22N95W in the SW corner of the 
Gulf of Mexico, to a 1006 mb low pressure center that is along 
20N at the coast of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, into the 
Caribbean Sea near 17N83W, and to 13N78W. Precipitation: 
isolated moderate to locally strong is in the coastal waters, 
from 94W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the northern 
parts of the Yucatan Peninsula and to the Yucatan Channel. 
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong in 
clusters is within 430 nm to the northeast of the Caribbean Sea 
surface trough from Haiti westward. Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong is between 67W and 73W. Isolated moderate is 
from 11N northward to the trough from 78W westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 73W in northern 
Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered 
moderate to isolated strong is in the waters from the monsoon 
trough southward between 79W and 81W. Scattered moderate to 
strong in clusters is in Colombia from 06N to 08N between 73W 
and 78W, and from 08N to 10N between the Colombia/Venezuela 
border and 74W.

The current western Caribbean Sea surface trough is producing 
widespread rainshowers and thunderstorms to the north of 16N in 
the west central Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds and the sea 
heights will increase to the east and southeast of the Windward 
Islands on Saturday, from a tropical wave that will move across 
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the upcoming weekend. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is on top of Florida. The GFE model for 
250 mb and for 500 mb show this trough. The same trough was in 
the eastern Gulf of Mexico 24 hours ago. Precipitation: broken 
to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated to widely 
scattered moderate are from 70W westward. NE-to-E winds, 15 to 
20 knots, are in the Atlantic Ocean from Cuba and 20N northward 
from 70W westward. Abundant moisture is in the same region also.

Hurricane Epsilon near 29.6N 60.6W 953 mb at 11 PM EDT moving 
WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt. 
Epsilon will move to 30.5N 61.4W Thu morning, then north of the 
area on Thursday. The gradient between western Atlantic Ocean 
high pressure and Hurricane Epsilon will maintain strong winds 
and large seas in the western waters through Friday. Long-period 
northeast swell will continue to impact the waters to the north 
and northeast of the Bahamas, through late Saturday. 

$$
mt

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Oct-2020 05:35:06 UTC