972 
AXNT20 KNHC 302100
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 22W from 
02N to 12N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 20W and 
25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41W from 02N 
to 11N, moving westward 15-20 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate 
convection is noted mainly behind the wave axis from 05N to 10N 
between 35W and 40W. 

A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis near 67W 
extending southward into central Venezuela where the wave is 
helping to induce some convective activity. It is moving westward 
at 15 kt. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08.5N13W and extends to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues 
from 06N23W to 05N40W, and from 04N43W to 04.5N51W. Aside from
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section above, scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N
between 12W and 20W, and from 04N to 08N between 25W and 31W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from central Florida to Louisiana.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail W of 90W, with light to gentle
winds E of 90W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range W of 90W and 1-2 ft E
of 90W. Hazy conditions persist over the western Gulf due to 
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico. 

For the forecast, the front will dissipate by Fri. Meanwhile, the
relatively weak surface ridging across the basin will continue 
into early next week. As a result, winds will pulse moderate to 
fresh in the western Gulf during the evenings through the weekend.
Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the northern and 
western portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late 
afternoons and at night through Sun. Haze west of 90W due to 
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue 
for at least the next couple of days reducing visibility at times.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large area of showers and thunderstorms persists over the SW 
Caribbean, covering mainly the waters S of 14N and W of 75W. This 
activity is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds 
and at the same time be accompanied by frequent lightning. Please 
refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local weather office 
for the latest information on this active weather. A diffluent 
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity, that 
is now affecting the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua and the Atlantic
coast of Costa Rica. Southwesterly flow aloft continues to transport
abundant tropical moisture from Guatemala and Belize across the 
western Caribbean Sea reaching the Cayman Islands and eastern 
Cuba. The atmospheric environment will remain very unstable and 
conducive for locally heavy rain to affect some areas of the 
Greater Antilles and the SW Caribbean. Hazy conditions continue to
affect the Gulf of Honduras due to persistent agricultural fires 
in Central America. The haze may be reducing the visibility to 
at times, especially along the northern coast of Honduras and the
Bay Islands. 

Fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central 
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere across the 
basin, except for light to gentle winds over the northwestern and 
north- central sections. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the south-
central and SW parts of the basin, 3 to 5 ft S of 18N, and 1 to 3 
ft N of 18N, including the Windward Passage. 

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high 
pressure north of the area and low pressure near Colombia will 
maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south- 
central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. The 
pressure gradient will increase Sat behind a tropical wave that is
currently exiting the Caribbean. This will lead to fresh to 
strong trade winds across the central basin Sat through early Mon.
Winds will slightly diminish by early next week. Smoke from 
agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced 
visibilities over portions of the Gulf of Honduras. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N74W to central Florida. Farther
east, a second front extends from 31N26W to 28N46W. A surface
trough extends from 30N52W to 21N60W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the waters N of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh
trades S of 20N. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range N of 20N, and 4-6 ft
S of 20N. 

For the forecast, relatively weak surface ridging over the region
is allowing for moderate or lighter winds to exist over the 
forecast waters. A cold front moving across Florida coast will 
press eastward, stretching from Bermuda to the central Bahamas by 
Fri night, then from 31N55W to the central Bahamas by Sun with the
tail-end of the boundary stalling. High pressure building in 
behind the front will tighten the pressure gradient across the 
region, bringing moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across 
waters north of 20N. Conditions will slightly improve by early 
next week north of 27N.

$$
AL