000
AXNT20 KNHC 291602
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of 
Senegal near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 07N20W. The 
ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 01N30W to 00N42W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 07N and east of 
40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A line of strong thunderstorms are impacting the nearshore waters
of the northwest Gulf of Mexico north of 27N and west of 91W. 
Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge in the western Atlantic 
supports moderate to occasionally strong SE winds and moderate 
seas over much of the Gulf

For the forecast, the aforementioned high-pressure system will 
weaken over the next few days, resulting in diminishing winds and 
decreasing seas across the basin. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to 
fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula and south-
central Gulf each evening through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are 
present south of Hispaniola, Windward Passage, and Gulf of 
Honduras. Moderate easterly breezes and moderate seas are found 
across the remainder of the central and NW Caribbean waters. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail. Pockets of low-level moisture traveling across the 
Caribbean are producing isolated, weak showers.

For the forecast, high pressure centered between the Southeast US
and Bermuda will gradually weaken over the next few days. Fresh 
to locally strong easterly winds at night in the Gulf of Honduras,
Windward Passage, and offshore southern Hispaniola will diminish 
midweek. Northerly swell will push rough seas through the passages
in the NE Caribbean through Wed. Otherwise, gentle to moderate 
easterly winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Caribbean 
Thu and Fri while light to gentle winds will dominate elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N43W to 21N55W, with a pre-frontal 
trough analyzed from 24N47W to 14N50W. A few showers are observed 
east of the trough to 40W and north of 23N. Fresh to strong 
southerly winds and moderate seas are noted ahead of the front to 
37W and north of 27N. Behind the front, rough seas prevail to 70W 
with moderate to fresh W to NW winds observed north of 28N to 63W.
The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is under the influence of 
a broad subtropical ridge centered between the SE US and Bermuda 
with moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a 
1030 mb high pressure system located over the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures over western 
Africa support fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 15N and east
of 35W and moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds and moderate seas are prevalent. 

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh W to NW winds 
behind a cold front that moved to the central subtropical Atlantic
waters this morning will continue to affect the NE offshore 
waters north of 28N through Tue evening. Long-period northerly 
swell with peak seas to 13 ft will start subsiding this evening as
the front continues to shift eastward. Fresh to locally strong 
winds will continue over the waters south of 23N and west of 70W 
through late today, especially in the approaches of the Windward 
Passage. More tranquil marine conditions are expected afterwards 
as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.

$$
Nepaul